Bonus Clearing and Downswings

Well, any of you who know me know that I can't throw out a statement like I made at the end of the last blog post about "somehow" figuring out how to graph something without subsequently figuring out exactly how to do it. So, that being said:

Below is the graph (in BB) of my winnings-at-the-table (in blue) and total winnings including bonus clearing (in red). All of these hands are at Cake skins, and the span of the graph is just under 75K hands. In my observation, Cake bonuses clear at almost exactly 1 BB/100 across multiple levels, so that is the assumption made for this graph.

I have made ~1500 BB in ~75K hands = 2.0 BB/100. And since the bonus clearing rate is 1BB/100, my overall win rate is a tidy 3 BB/100.

Although not pictured, if I could stay away from the 6-max games my results would be 1283 BB in 55K hands for 2.31 BB/100 (3.31 BB/100 post-bonus, with over 80% of those hands being $2/$4 or $3/$6 full-ring). Will I learn? Your guess is as good as mine.

My largest downswing at the tables (in blue) occurred very late in the graph as I was approaching 1500 BB. Checking the actual numbers, that was a prolonged 160 BB downswing in slightly under 9000 hands. There are also a few 120-ish BB downswings scattered in there, including a very sharp one as I approached 1100 BB for the first time - I dropped 121 BB in 2139 hands. Otherwise, nothing much to "write home about" as they say.

Now look at the red graph - the prolonged 160 BB downswing has shallowed out quite a bit - in fact, the actual "start" of the downswing occurs later since my bonus clearing (evidently) covered the first part of the downswing. That particular downswing is reduced to almost exactly 100 BB in 4800 hands. Likewise, the 121 BB downswing is reduced to just under 100 BB (as could probably be guessed - in 2139 hands, I'd clear 21.39 BB).

So as to be expected, the bonus clearing helps cushion the downswings, especially the ones that take a long time to unfold. And I was (evidently) also correct that no downswing that I've had exceeds 100 BB once bonus clearing is taken into account.

But what does that mean as far as account balances? That's really what downswings are all about, right? Seeing the palpable evidence that you have hundreds of dollars less than you used to have? Perhaps it shouldn't be that way, but I don't think I can buy a Starbucks or an iPod with a BB, only a $$. Thus:


The blue line "only" corresponds to play at the table, so although I lost a tad bit over $1,000 through play during that late downswing I already mentioned, my account balance (red) "only" suffered $640 during that timespan. The other big downswing(s) are a tad under $500.

You can also clearly see that (as mentioned last time), I am still down $200 through play in my last 18K hands, but luckily have cleared over $900 in bonus over that time. That'll buy a lot of White Chocolate Mochas, and maybe even a few iPods.

Good Day Puts Me over $12K

Had my best day ever yesterday (over $400):


Unfortunately, all it allowed me to do is break exactly even (OK, -$0.42 to be exact) over the last two-ish months:



As always, I am very thankful for bonus clearing. In fact, I noticed that since the last time I updated my bankroll on the webpage in mid-August I am down about $150 through play on the tables ($3740.39 vs. $3590.29), but have cleared over $900 in bonus over that time.

One of these days when I figure out how do to it, I'll post a "raw" graph showing what I've won at the tables, and then a graph that shows what it looks like with bonus clearing included. It makes the downswings a bit more bearable, for sure. In fact, I'd be surprised if I've had a Cake downswing bigger than 120-ish BB once the bonus clearing is added in.

No poker tonight, likely - I've got to watch the 24 preview!

New Biggest Pot, By Far

Some background before the hand:

I've been at the table for about 2 revolutions, and the guy two seats to my right is a complete and total maniac. He is betting / raising at every opportunity on every street with any two cards. I may have seen him fold preflop once, and I may have seen him only call on a post-flop street once. Otherwise he is putting in max action on every street with any two.

The way in which the rest of the table is reacting to this wackiness is by doing a lot of cold-calling preflop (obviously trying to get into pots with him), but very rarely trying to 3-bet. So my strategy is either to iso-3-bet him myself with a suitable hand (pretty much anything I could take directly to a showdown - pairs and Aces), or to cold-call myself with any hand that can benefit from massive multiway pots (pretty much suited connectors).

I have already cold-called 76s a few hands previous and gotten 6 ways action for 2 bets preflop. Unfortunately, I had the whiff-of-all-whiffs on the flop and was forced to fold. Then came the hand:

UTG limps and the maniac raises and I look down at T9s. Here we go.....

Limit: $3/$6, 10 players

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is HJ with T♦ 9♦

UTG calls, 1 fold, Maniac raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button 3-bets,SB folds, BB caps!, UTG calls, Maniac calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Well, that was certainly not typical. 5 ways capped PF.

Flop: Q♦ 8♠ 2♦ (20 SB, 5 players)

Flush draw. Looks like I'm along for the ride. Hang on.......

BB checks, UTG checks, Maniac bets, Hero calls, Button raises, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Maniac caps!, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Yup, 5 ways capped here too. TWENTY big bets in the pot already going to the turn. Pull that seatbelt tighter.....

Turn: 4♦ (20 BB, 5 players)

BB checks, UTG checks, Maniac bets, Hero raises, Button folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Maniac caps!, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Well, I guess we got the button out. 4 ways capped on the turn. THIRTY SIX big bets going to the river. BB and UTG started this hand with less than 12 BB and both will be all-in on the river.

River: J♣ (24BB, 4 players)

BB bets, UTG raises, Maniac 3-bets, Hero caps!, BB calls all-in, UTG calls all-in, Maniac folds.

Final pot: 45.33 BB

BB showed AA (with A diamonds - lucky no diamond rivered), UTG showed KK and I scoop a $272 pot (net of exactly $200)

So many comments:

• LOL BB check-3-betting his AA on flop and turn
• ROTFL UTG limping and calling all these bets all the way with KK, then all of a sudden thinking his KK is good on the river.
• ROTFLMAO Maniac folding river for one bet in a 45+ BB pot.

Beat: if BB and UTG have full stacks, $26.50 more goes in this pot. :-)

Here's what that looks like in a picture:

The Three Phases of Cake

1. Solidity: 8 months of 3.5 BB/100
2. Stagnation: 4.5 months breakeven
3. Boomswitch: 2+ months of 5.7 BB/100

New Biggest Pot

My first hand at the table. And this occurred after the last graph posting too....

Limit: $3/$6, 10 players

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with K♦ 6♣

2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: J♦ T♦ 9♦ (6SB, 6 players)

SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Yes, you can probably argue with both of my plays on this street. So sue me. :-)

Turn: Q♦ (8BB, 5 players)

SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 raises, Button folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 caps, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: A♣ (24BB, 4 players)

SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, MP2 raises all-in $9, SB folds, Hero calls.

Final pot: 26.75 BB ($160.50)

MP2 had the 8 of diamonds for the other one-card straight flush. No idea what the other two had. Hate to be selfish, but if the guy had more bets in his stack, I'm sure the river gets capped as well for a pot approaching $200. And if one of the other guys had a set and the board had paired on the river......

I actually netted $118.50 in this pot, by far my largest profit in one pot (my next largest was netting $90 off my JJJ hand I posted about a while back.)

Graph Since June

Brag: 5.5 BB/100 for two months
Beat: not able to cash out any of the money
Variance: $3/$6 shorthanded and $5/$10 full kicks my ass every time I choose to sit down, or these numbers would be even higher. :-)

$11K

Well, a little over a month since my $10K post, I get to make my $11K post. Needless to say I have been running very well lately - I looked it up the other night and I'm up almost $2K just since June 1, and that doesn't count any bonus cleared during that time - that's just from the tables themselves. Graphs later, maybe. I am absolutely certain I am tempting the doomswitch gods by even mentioning a good run, but....

Or maybe the "doomswitch" portion of this run is that the Cake skin I am playing on has lost their check processor and I can't actually lay my hands on any of the $$$. I have a $1200+ withdrawal in limbo right now with no timeframe for resolution. Grrrrr.

$10K !

Well, last night I finally passed the $10,000 earned mark. Amazing. I'd write a bit more about it, but have a few more bonus $$$ to clear, so I'll post a few graphs:

Graph of last night - the night that put me over $10K:


The first 60-ish hands were against a 100/100 maniac at 2/4 6-max. The rest were 2/4 and 3/6 full-ring. Don't know if my heart can take too many more nights that start out like that....

Graph of this last 3-month bonus:


Graph of all Cake hands I've played:



Scary thing? I've still have earned more at blackjack in the few months I played it than I have through in-game Poker play (excluding bonuses). Bankroll update with gory detail in the sidebar.

Back to the tables!

Punch to the Stomach

Quick mind-clearing blog post. I have run horribly, horribly bad over the past 4 days:


Losing 68 cents per hand played = sustainable? Admittedly, this is "only" a 100 BB downswing, but for some reason it stings quite a quite more than the other recent 100 BB downswings.

So, in looking for the positive I looked at how I've done overall at Cake; I am a winner at 11 of the 13 levels I've played. The only exceptions:

$1/$2 6-max: down less than 2 BB overall in 4800 hands.
$5/$10 FR: down less than 11 BB in 249 hands.

Every other level is positive, although my $2/$4 FR graph is a bit sickening:


Now I wish I wouldn't have looked at that....let's find a good one to get the confidence back up: $3/$6 6-max where I table-select like crazy:

Small sample size, LDO, but I'll take whatever shot of confidence I can get at this point.

Brief Bonus Clearing Update

Long time, no write - it occurs to me that I've only written one post in the last month. Shame on me, but I can't honestly say much of note has gone on at the tables. I haven't gotten a lot of hands in, none of them have been horribly interesting (except maybe one that I'll attach for the hell of it at the end), and haven't had any big swings one way or the other. Every night is +/- $100, no biggie, although it is still amazing to me that I can shrug off swings of that magnitude.

Due to not getting many hands in, I am quite far behind in clearing my latest bonus: as of last night I am 35% though the bonus time period, but only 20% ($100) cleared. I just haven't been getting many hands in for a variety of reasons (been busy, bad table conditions, etc.) Clearing the last $400 shouldn't be an issue if I put my mind to it - hell, I cleared a bonus at a rate of almost $275 / month earlier this year - but don't know if I'll have the time or motivation. We'll see.

And now on to the hand.

Limit Holdem Ring, $2/$4 (6-max)


Pre-flop: (6 players) CO posts a dead blind
Hero is BB with 5♣ 3♣

2 folds, CO checks, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: 9♣ 6♦ 2♣ (8.0 SB, 4 players)

SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, SB calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: K♦ (6 BB, 4 players)

SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, SB calls, Hero calls, CO folds.

River: 4♠ (9 BB, 3 players)

SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero caps!, Button calls.

Final pot: 17 BB ($68)

Results: Button showed K♣ K♠

Preflop was probably a tad marginal, but figured I was going to be getting 7:1 on my call by the time it got around (assuming nobody LRR-ed).

Flop you could argue should have been a raise for me with my "monster" 13-out draw (flush draw + gutshot)

Turn standard, and I decided to c/r river on the (apparent) blankiest-of-blanks. I can't imagine what must have been going through his head on the river when c/r-ed on a K9642 non-flush board. Luckily (for me) he had the second nuts, and I showed down the nuts for a nice pot due to the Cake boomswitch being in the correct position.

Actually the best part of this hand (for me) was getting to show down 53s - not something a TAG like me gets to do like, ever. I'd love to see the notes people tok after that hand, though....

A Few $5/$10 Hands

OK, so it appears that I lied - I enjoyed my time off so much, I not only haven't played much (maybe 200 hands in 2 weeks, where I'd normally get 10 times that number of hands in), but haven't taken the time to write any blog posts. Now that two separate people have mocked me about this (surely a significant fraction of my "readers"), I figured I may as well churn one out - my two most memorable $5/$10 hands from my last stint.

Limit Holdem Ring game, $5/$10
10 players

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with A♣ A♠

Yay - an AA hand. You just know that this is going to be a trainwreck, right?

4 folds, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: 5♥ 3♦ 3♥ (9.5SB, 3 players)

Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button folds.

Turn: T♣ (5.75BB, 2 players)

Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls.

The only hands I am behind are specifically TT and 55 - there is no way he has a 3 in his hand at all. When he only calls my 3-bet, I know I am ahead.

River: 4♥ (11.75BB, 2 players)

Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

Final pot: 15.75 BB ($157.50)

Results: MP2 showed A♥ T♥

Like I said......

Actually, the positiveness I take from this hand is the turn 3-bet. It shows that I am not playing weak-tight while playing above my normal level - that I can still read hands and act on those reads regardless of the higher stakes. The negativeness (if there is any) is that I couldn't bet/fold the river, but I simply can't fold an overpair getting over 14:1 vs. an unknown. But still, $70 of my own money down the toilet in one hand.

The next hand below is from the same table, about 30 minutes later.

Limit Holdem Ring game, $5/$10
10 players

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with J♠ J♦

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, Hero 3-bets, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: T♠ 4♠ J♥ (10.5SB, 3 players)

[mental dialogue]
Holy crap, holy crap, holy crap - I've got top set at $5/$10, but man is that a drawy board.
[/mental dialogue]

UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: J♣ (6.75BB, 3 players)

[mental dialogue]
Holy crap, holy crap, holy crap - I've just turned quads at $5/$10, please please someone be slowplaying TT.
[/mental dialogue]

UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, ...

[mental dialogue]
OMFG$$$$$ - I've just been checkraised on turn the while holding the mortal nuts at $5/$10. This is going to totally make up for the AA fiasco. I briefly think about slowplaying, but realize that if he's got a hand he's willing to give action on that board with, any bet that misses going in is a bet I can't get back later on the river.
[/mental dialogue]

... UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 folds.

[mental dialogue]
OMFGWTFBBQ - nice check-raise-fold line, sir.
[/mental dialogue]

Results: Final pot: 10.75 BB ($107.50)

Bonus Cleared

Well, I finally got done clearing my 3-month bonus on Sportsbook last night. Or, rather, as much of the bonus as I could possibly get cleared; turns out I played nearly 18,000 hands in three months to clear $820 of the possible $1,000 bonus. That is a lot of hands for me, and it is time to take a little break from playing and chill.

The overall breakdown of the hands / levels I've played during the bonus was:

• 43% of the hands were at $3/$6 full-ring
• 40% of the hands were $2/$4 full-ring
• 10% of the hands were $1/$2 6-max

The remaining 7% of the hands were scattered amongst levels as diverse as $0.04/$0.08 6-max through $5/$10 full-ring.

So, what about results? Well, I've already had a few blog posts about the swings I've had, so this graph should be no surprise:


I'm thankful I at least I ended the bonus to the positive, including the nice +20BB quick session to end the bonus last night.

But hidden within this graph are some massive differences between my performances at different levels. In particular:

$2/$4 full-ring:


No, your eyes do not deceive you - that is an over 170BB downswing buried in there for a final result of -$588 and a winrate of -2.07 BB/100 over the span of my bonus.

$3/$6 full ring:


Yup, always nice to run better at the higher level; $1,247 and 2.72 BB/100 over slightly more hands than I played at $2/$4. Note to self: play only $3/$6 during my next bonus......

From a pure monetary standpoint, I made a total of about $1,400 in the three months; $820 from bonus clearing and about $580 from play. If I could manage to not suck so bad at $2/$4 (at the same time keeping up the winrate at $3/$6), the number through play would have obviously been a lot higher, but.....

I've also reached a few milestones recently - more than 100K hands played since I started online and over $9K earned overall from my online adventures. A paltry sum when compared to poker1eh's Stars Step 6 win for $12K the other night, but I'll take it.

Next post: some overall stats from all my Cake hands, and maybe some specific hands from $5/$10.

AA Wins ?!?!?

Seems impossible that AA could win in:

• A 6 way capped pot preflop
• At $3/$6
• With a limp-capper (so I didn't even get to cap!)
  
• With a single suited flop
  
• With two broadway cards
  
• Unimproved

Miracles never cease:

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with A♣ A♠

UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: K♣ J♣ 9♣(24.5SB, 6 players)

BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises all-in $6, BB folds, UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

LOL limp-capper check/folding flop.

Turn: 5♦ (16.25BB, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 15.25BB, Sidepot 1: 1BB)

UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: 7♦ (18.25BB, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 15.25BB, Sidepot 1: 3BB)

UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final pot: 20.25 BB ($121.50)

UTG showed KQo, MP3 showed AKo

Yet Another +100 BB, Another -100 BB

Insanity

12K Hands in 2008, 1 BB

So after my session last night, I decided to pull a YTD graph. Here is what it looks like:


As mentioned in the subject line, 12K hands, a grand total of 1BB. Not 1BB/100. One single solitary big bet. Comments:

• I cannot believe how swingy these results are - 4 separate 100 BB downswings in a 12K hand stretch. I wouldn't have even believed this was possible. Not that I should be complaining about a 100 BB swing compared to some of my other swings.....


• For whatever reason, I am getting killed a $2/$4 while at the same time making a killing at $3/$6. Last night alone, I was -$120 at $2/$4 and +$120 at $3/$6. For the year, -$480 at $2/$4 but +$480 at $3/$6, almost to the dollar.


• In terms of my AA results, I am 0-for-my-last-7. My last two were a guy who called my flop bet with K high, no pair, no draw and hitting a runner-runner flush, and a guy who called my flop bet with J high, no pair no draw and hit a runner-runner straight.

But on the good side, the way the BB wins and losses lay across the levels I played, I am actually up about $100 through play and have cleared over $500 in bonus so it isn't exactly like I've played 12K hands of poker with no profit to show for it. Also helpful is looking at this in terms of my overall Cake experience:

So, don't cry for me, Argentina:

My overall Cake graph proves I am too legit to quit:

Why Do I Suck With AA?

So it is a long-burning question in my mind why I suck so badly with AA so I thought I'd throw some math at it. Big surprise, I know.

My winrate with AA is simply pathetic - I believe it is 1.6 BB / hand when most of the results I've seen from other players are slightly north of 3 BB / hand. Let's assume, then, that my deficiency is about 1.5 BB every time I've been dealt it. How significant is this? Well, I've been dealt AA 400 times, so I'm down 600 BB from where I "should" be if I earned what others earn. This is a non-trivial percentage of my entire earn for two years. Even if I "just" look at my Cake hands (softer site, and I should be better at poker than when I started 2 years ago), my AA suckage means a deficit of 200 BB which is 20% of my 1000 BB total - this alone would boost my winrate by 0.7 BB/100. Yikes!

There are many options for the source of this leak:

• Not letting AA go when beaten.
• Losing more than necessary with AA when beaten.
• Not getting value from AA when ahead.

The second option is kind-of a subset of the first one, but the first option speaks to not folding AA enough, and the second one is about showing it down for more bets than I should have shown it down for. Make sense?

Well, the first option is the one I want to tackle in this post - how often do I lay down AA, and how often "should" I lay it down? It turns out I have only laid down AA 5 times out of the 400 times I've been dealt it (once on the flop, three times on the turn, once on the river). I'm not even convinced that the river fold was correct (I folded top set on the river to a single bet heads-up on a 4-flush board). So I fold 5 of 400 or 1.25% of the time. Is this good? Bad? What is the "reference"?

Well I checked in with my poker "coach" and had him look at his 150K+ hand database. Out of his 711 AA hands he folded 32 times (once on the flop, 15 times on the turn, 16 times on the river) for a 4.5% "fold rate". So, based on this one data point I am simply not laying them down enough.

But wait - we can determine how big an "error" this is in my case. If I "need" to fold an extra 3.25% of the time, that means I showed down 13 AA hands that I "shouldn't" have. However, figure for each of these hands I lost an extra 1-2 BB / hand (either a river bet I shouldn't have called, or a turn and river bet I shouldn't have called. So at most I lost 26 BB more than I should over those hands. But my overall "deficit" with AA is 600 BB !!!!

The conclusion I can draw from this is that although I am very obviously showing down AA more than I should, it is not even close to the biggest leak I must have with AA - it explains less than 5% of my deficit. This calculation at least jibes with some platitude that I remember (from a 2+2 or Ed Miller article or something) that said that if you showed down every AA hand you got at limit poker, it would be at most a small error.

So, it looks like it is off to the database to look for hands where I've either not gotten value (most likely, knowing my own tendencies), or paid too much to show down. It is only 400 hands - how hard could it be to go through them all?

I'll leave this post with the one AA hand I folded on the flop - within a month or two of me starting to play the game online:

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ad Ac ]
BigFreeze101 folds.
ukvixen calls [$0.15].
Hope06 calls [$0.15].
bwhit86 calls [$0.15].
Mcblunt111 folds.
rainbowpants folds.
KGssd1 calls [$0.15].
Hero raises [$0.30].
Pandaro39 folds.
Rennwurm folds.
ukvixen calls [$0.15].
Hope06 calls [$0.15].
bwhit86 calls [$0.15].
KGssd1 calls [$0.15].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, Jh, 6s ]
ukvixen bets [$0.15].
Hope06 raises [$0.30].
bwhit86 calls [$0.30].
KGssd1 calls all-In.
Hero calls [$0.30].
ukvixen raises [$0.30].
Hope06 raises [$0.30].
bwhit86 calls [$0.30].
Hero folds.
ukvixen calls [$0.15].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
ukvixen bets [$0.30].
Hope06 calls [$0.30].
bwhit86 folds.
** Dealing River ** [ Tc ]
ukvixen bets [$0.30].
Hope06 calls [$0.30].
ukvixen shows [ 2d, Jc ] three of a kind, jacks.
Hope06 shows [ Js, Ks ] three of a kind, jacks.
KGssd1 doesn't show [ Qc, Qh ] two pairs, queens and jacks.
Hope06 wins $2.91 from side pot #1 with three of a kind, jacks with king kicker.
Hope06 wins $1.92 from the main pot with three of a kind, jacks with king kicker.

Palm Pilot Update

15,326 hands, just short of 4,000 BB = 26 BB/100

Shortest post ever.

What Does -371 BB Look Like?

As a brief followup to my previous post, here is what a 371 BB downswing (at non-Cake sites) looks like:

Up about 744BB in the first 52K hands for 1.43 BB/100, then down 371 BB (almost exactly half of my BB winnings to date) in 6K hands for an amazing -6.2 BB/100. Since I was playing at a (much) higher level at the end, the $$$ results of these 58K hands hands is actually in the red by about $100. Thank God for bonuses, and thank God for the Cake network.

Two Years and Counting

Given that I played my first hand of online poker for money on February 7, 2006, it looks like I've been doing this for 2 years. So what better time to do some comparison between the two years? My apologies for the fomatting (Blogger does some weird things with tables).

Most BB won, day
Year 1	Year 2
4/8/2006: 70.6 BB 6/17/2006: 63.8 BB 5/5/2006: 53.1 BB	1/5/2008: 63.1 BB 9/2/2007: 53.3 BB 1/18/2007: 51.7 BB

Looks like these are similarly sized.

Most BB lost, day
Year 1	Year 2
7/21/2006: -53.8 BB 10/31/2006: -47.7 BB 6/21/2006: -47.4 BB	3/18/2007: -60.0 BB 10/20/2007: -55.1 BB 6/17/2007: -47.6 BB

Again, similarly sized. Looks like just a bad day on 3/18? Think again - look a few tables down....

Most BB won, week
Year 1	Year 2
5/1/2006 - 5/7/2006: 94.7 BB 9/4/2006 - 9/10/2006: 78.4 BB 12/18/2006 - 12/24/2006: 78.0 BB	12/10/2007 - 12/16/2007: 112.3 BB 10/29/2007 - 11/4/2007: 93.3 BB 7/16/2007 - 7/22/2007: 76.1 BB

Nice week in late December, but in general these are similarly sized.

Most BB lost, week
Year 1	Year 2
3/27/2006 - 4/2/2006: -84.0 BB 5/15/2006 - 5/21/2006: -55.8 BB 1/22/2007 - 1/28/2007: -38.9 BB	3/12/2007 - 3/18/2007: -98.0 BB 3/5/2007 - 3/11/2007: -95.6 BB 6/11/2007 - 6/17/2007: -76.2 BB

Here is where the real nastiness comes in. My first year, I only had two weeks where I lost even more than 40 BB. This year, I have some huge weeks of loss. And you'll notice the two consecutive weeks in March 2007 that caused me to take a break from the game for two months. Nearly 200 BB in 2 weeks. And if you "cherry pick" dates, the total size of the downswing before I quit was 282 BB starting on February 11, 2007 (just past my first year anniversary!) and ending on those two weeks above.

And for a truly sobering number, my total downswing since February 11, 2007 is 371 BB on non-Cake-network sites, since I did play a few days in June on Stars and FTP (and got killed LDO). I should just withdraw all my money from those sites so I am not even tempted to go play there again....

Most $$$ won, day
Year 1	Year 2
2/3/2007: $92.00 6/17/2006: $81.00 7/22/2006: $74.25	1/5/2008: $380.90 1/18/2008: $235.91 11/10/2007: $181.75

Obviously bigger than last year. Best day is far and away better than my second-best day, and more than double my third place day.

Most $$$ lost, day
Year 1	Year 2
10/31/2006: -$107.35 12/15/2006: -$103.25 1/24/2007: -$85.00	1/13/2008: -$241.50 10/20/2007: -$212.30 11/15/2007: -$203.00

Three days of more than -$200? Wow.

Most $$$ won, week
Year 1	Year 2
1/29/2007 - 2/4/2007: $177.00 12/18/2006 - 12/24/2006: $146.75 10/23/2006 - 10/29/2006: $98.85	10/29/2007 - 11/4/2007: $447.31 12/31/2007 - 1/6/2008: $335.48 11/5/2007 - 11/11/2007: $295.95

Nice run from 10/29 to 11/11: nearly $750.

Most $$$ lost, week
Year 1	Year 2
1/22/2007 - 1/28/2007: -$166.75 12/11/2006 - 12/17/2006: -$157.25 3/27/2006 - 4/2/2006: -$85.87	3/5/2007 - 3/11/2007: -$298.00 1/21/2008 - 1/27/2008: -$225.75 3/12/2007 - 3/18/2007: -$196.00

Note 2 of these 3 weeks were during the slide that had me giving up the game for a bit. Cherry picking the dates as before, the total slide starting on February 11 was -$923.40.

Well, that's about it. Back to the tables!

Variance

Well, since the last blog post (only 5 days ago, mind you) I have already had another 110 BB upswing followed immediately by another 80 BB downswing. This is 4 separate, distinct upswings and downswings since the beginnning of the year, making my graph look very similar to a capital M:


These are the types of swings I remember from my Full Tilt days, and made me quit the site altogether. Again, these are "merely" 100 BB swings, but the frequency of both the upswings and downswings are just shocking. Note far hand side of the graph, where I won 3 hands virtually in a row (A4s in BB on a board of AAxAx, JJ OTB that flopped top set and turned a boat, and on another table a AJs vs TT in a SB vs BB battle where I flopped an A.) and then almost just-as immediately lost it all back.

On the upswing, all draws seem to hit and all your AK's tend to hit A high flops and are always against an AQ to pay you off. Likewise, on the downswing, all your draws miss, all your AK's either whiff or are now against AQ on AQx flops, or your 22 vs JT on an AT2 flop goes down in flames when the final board is AT2-T-J.

Too early to shout "rigged" yet (except in jest), but there is only so many times you can see A7 v. 55 on AA5-x-7 without starting to wonder.......

What Goes Up.....

...I think everyone knows the end of that saying. When I made my initial deposit at the beginning of the year I had a tad over $1,300 at Sportsbook. I almost immediately ran that up to $1,900+ due to an amazing week that has already been chronicled in my previous posts.

Then came this week, where every draw missed, and every big hand ran into a bigger hand. Every night seemed to be a $100-$200 loss. At one point last night alone I was down $260 in the middle of my session, although I made a slight comeback and ended "only" down $130. When I finished last night I popped up a graph of my results this year and found that (exclusive of bonus) at one point during last night's session I had actually given back every bit of my profit for this year and was down about $40 through play on the year. The run-up at the end of the session has me slightly in the green, but that is quite a change from this time last week. To paraphrase something from one of my "brag" posts - I just dropped 3 buy-ins at $3/$6 - WTF?

I am continually amazed at the amount of variance at limit poker. It isn't like I haven't had this kind of variance before - far from it: this downswing is "only" about 100 BB, far less than my biggest swing and not even worth mentioning in the long run. There is actually an interesting post on 2+2 right now from someone with 700K+ hands. They have a 550 BB downswing, along with a concurrent 300 BB downswing not graphed (on Cake, amazingly enough) for a total of a 850 BB downswing. Yet, in the grand scheme of the graph, it looks like not that big a deal. Really amazing / humbling.

Quite frankly, I don't know that I have the stomach for that, which means I may need to re-examine not only the levels I play, but the reason I play in the first place.

Or, I could just hope that I get boomswitched this weekend and go back to thinking that I know what I am doing.....

Big Pots

As promised in the last blog post, below is the new first place in The Biggest Pot I've Ever Won. I've also included some other memorable big pots with less commentary than the newest one.

Cake 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J♦, J♠. CO posts a blind of $3.

UTG raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold,

This pot is already is an aberration by the time it gets to me - most raised pots at this table so far are played with a raiser, maybe one cold-caller, and a blind. In no other hand so far have I seen this much cold-calling - this is not your typical cold-calling-with-crap table. I just call with JJ in the SB - with that many decent players and an A, K, or Q coming on flop 50% of the time I decide to play it like a small pair for set value. I'm sure I miss some value by failing to 3-bet, but having the worst absolute and relative position to the raiser really hurts this hand. I would probably get murdered by 2+2 on this decision, but I'm confortable with this.

Hero calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (10 SB) J♣, 5♦, 2♠ (5 players)

Well, that would be the way to flop, right? So what is my plan? Check raise the field, LDO.

Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises,

Whoa - now hold on just a sec. On that dry a board, what can the CO possibly have that he cold-called 2 preflop with and can raise that flop? Pretty much a set, or a highly discounted AJs (discounted primarily because I have most of the J's). So, change in plan - I don't want to blow the field away with a 3-bet here. New plan - call this raise, and donk the turn to trap the field (as c/r-ing the turn blows away the field too).

Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 4♠ (5 players)

Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, CO caps all-in, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

That went according to plan, although as pointed out to me in the meantime, this weird flop/turn transition depends on my opponents to be smart enough to fold for 2 more bets on the flop yet dumb enough to not see through the cold-call/donk line. Evidently only one of the three opponents I was trying to trap had this particular mental affliction.

River: (20.50 BB) 3♥ (3 players)

I'd love to say that I checked-to-induce a bluff or that since there was no money in the side pot it wasn't worth betting (as there is no way I can b/f this river), but the truth is, the fact that now any bare ace beats me scared the crap out of me.

Hero checks, UTG+2 checks.
Final Pot: 20.50 BB ($123)

I panic-checked and it got checked behind me. MHIG vs. button's 55. I didn't see what the other guy had, and the HH doesn't show. I now think this river was a bet/call, and I missed out on value by not betting it, because the answer to “what will UTG+2 call me with that I beat?” is quite obviously “whatever the hell he has been calling all these bets with so far.”

Now, a few of the pots further down the list.

Cake 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A♥, 9♥

2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A♣, A♠, 7♣ (4 players)

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 9♣ (2 players)

BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

When he donked, I figured him for at least a slowplayed A. When he 3-bet, I figured him for at least a flush. But I’ve got the nuts. Wheeeeee.

River: (13 BB) T♠ (2 players)

BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 16.5 BB ($99)

When he bets the river after my turn cap, I am sure he’s on another boat. Unless he has exactly AT, I’m gold. He turned over A7 for the flopped boat, and I 3-outered him on the turn. This was my biggest pot until the $123 one.

Cake 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K♥, Q♥.

5 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (6 SB) Q♠, Q♦, 6♠ (4 players)

Hero bets, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T♥ (4 players)

Hero bets, BB folds, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 caps, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 7♦ (3 players)

Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB ($96)

I include this one only for my rockin’ river c/r. Guy was a maniac, and at no point did I think I was behind. He actually turned over Q-crap, which was a better hand than I expected him to have, frankly.

Cake 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9♣, 9♥.

5 folds, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, MP3 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) Q♦, 9♦, 5♠ (3 players)

BB checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 5♥ (3 players)

BB checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (21.25 BB) 7♦ (3 players)

BB checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 22.5 BB ($90)

I include this one to show I can screw-the-pooch on these too. Between his preflop cap, his turn donk after my flop cap, and him 3-betting the turn I evidently put him on exactly QQ. Wrong - he flipped KK and MHIG. If I wasn't such a pansy (this should have been capped on the turn and at least 2 bets on river), this pot would have been my first $100 pot, and at $2/$4 to boot!

Anatomy of a Streak

So I logged onto Sportsbook tonight and after seeing some pretty dead tables decided to go through my hand history from the other night just to see how insane it all was. And this is how it went:

After the first 61 hands at the table I find myself with $197.50, a bit less than my starting stack. I have been pretty tight, only putting money in the pot 6 times in that span (3 times winning with flop c-bets, 1 turn fold with whiffed AKs after being c/r-ed by BB on 976 flop and 5 came on turn) and the following two semi-interesting hands:

Hand 45: I raise KK UTG, MP cold caller, BB calls. Flop AJ8 2-tone. BB checks, I bet, MP raises, BB calls, I fold. I figure at that point either the raiser or caller is sure to have an A. I then get sick as they check it down. MP shows QJo FTW. Crap.

Hand 46: (yes next hand!) CO openraises, I defend in BB w/J9s. Flop 954 2-tone. I c/r flop, he 3-bets, I call. Turn T, I check, he checks behind. River K, check/check and MHIG vs. missed 76 OESD.

Then at hand 62, the fireworks start. All hands not shown are folds or free looks in the BB combined with c/f flop.

Hand 62: I 3-bet an EP raiser with KK OTB. EP calls. Board J74-8-8 and he c/c's me down and MHIG.

Hand 67: I openraise AA in EP, MP calls (same cold-caller as hand 45, above), BB calls. Flop 866r. BB checks, I bet, MP calls, BB folds. Turn A. I bet, MP raises, I 3-bet, MP calls. River J, I bet, MP calls and MHIG for a nice $70.50 pot.

Hand 72: I limp behind two limpers in CO w/99, button raises, SB folds, all call. Flop AQJr. Amazingly, it is checked around. Turn 9 (LOL). Checked to me, I bet, only button calls. River A, I bet, button folds.

Hand 81: I 3-bet a HJ openraiser w/99 OTB, he calls. Flop A54 2-tone and my c-bet takes it down.

Hand 87: I raise AA UTG, MP calls, BB calls (this pattern sound familiar?). Flop Q52 2-tone. BB checks, I bet, MP calls, BB folds. Turn 6, I bet, MP folds.

(my stack is now $308.70, first time it has surpassed $300. 26 hands in.)

Hand 95: I raise AQo UTG, BB calls. Flop TT3, 2-tone. I bet both flop and turn and check behind the river on TT3-7-9 board and MHIG vs. AJ.

Hand 96: I defend my BB vs button openraise with T9o. I c/r a 655 flop, button only calls and folds to my turn bet. Yes, a bit frisky but he tended to be a folder.

Hand 105: I raise a CO openlimper w/KTs from SB, only CO calls. Flop 532 2-tone. I bet, CO calls. Turn T. I bet, CO calls. River K, I bet, CO calls and MHIG.

Hand 107: I openraise AJo in CO, BB calls. Flop QT9 single-suited and I have the A of trump. He check/calls. Turn K giving my the straight with flush redraw. He check/calls. River 3 completing my nut flush. He bets, I raise, he calls and MHIG

Hand 111: I 3-bet an EP raiser w/JJ in MP. BB calls, EP calls. Flop A53r. BB checks, I bet, MP folds, BB calls. Turn K, and BB folds to my bet.

(my stack is now $400.50, first time it has surpassed $400. 50 hands in.)

Hand 117: I openraise QTo in CO, SB calls, BB calls. Flop KQ2r. Checked to me, I bet, only SB calls. Turn A and SB folds to my bet.

Hand 123: I get a free look in my BB w/JTo vs two limpers. Flop T95r. I bet, I get one MP caller. Turn 7, I bet, MP calls. River 3, I bet, MP folds.

Hand 127: I limp behind an EP and MP limper w/K9s in CO (yes, this is a tad loose). I c/f a whiffed flop.

Hand 138: I raise EP limper w/QQ in HJ, only EP calls. Flop A53 2-tone and my c-bet takes it down

Hand 145: I am in the SB with JJ and the details of the hand will be subject of my NEXT blog post, but suffice it to say I showdown for a $123 pot.

(my stack is now $518.50, first time it has surpassed $500. 84 hands in.)

Hand 148: I raise EP limper w/AA in HJ, SB calls, BB calls, EP calls. Flop 743 2-tone. My c-bet is only called by BB. Turn 2 and my bet takes it down.

At that point my stack was at its peak of $538.50, a profit of $341 (almost 57 BB) in 87 hands.

So, I'll start the counting / stats for you:

I was dealt the following premium hands: 9 pairs (AA 3 times, KK and QQ once apiece, JJ twice, 99 twice), AQo and AJo. I also had some relatively weak-ish hands that hit good flops, held up, or were able to get opponents to fold.

I won 15 of the 16 pots that I entered (6 by showdown, 9 without a showdown) - the only pot I lost in that span where I put money in was the one small bet I lost with my loose K9s overlimp.

So, as you can plainly see, this streak was an example of the deck hitting me in the face combined with my opponents not hitting flops on my more marginal hands. The only hand I got really out-of-line with was the c/r with total air in my blind defense - all the other hands kind of played themselves. Interestingly enough, playing 16 hands out of 87 "only" puts me at a 18.4% VPIP even during this streak, so it wasn't that I was playing more hands than I should have - it is just that all of the playable ones were monsters!

Good Start to 2008

Well (as planned) I took the last part of 2007 off - not playing much at all, and at the $0.25/$0.50 level when I had the urge to get a few hands in. Also as planned I made a deposit at one of the Cake skins early in 2008 to see if I could continue my good fortunes there. I decided to use my existing Sportsbook account (where I had already run my free $20 into about $230) for the deposit and save my last Cake deposit for a brand new account where I will get rakeback after I clear this bonus in three months. There was only one hiccup in the plan (their daily deposit maximum is $1,000 instead of the $1,800 I intended to deposit to properly roll myself for $3/$6), but I got my $100 instant bonus and 3 months to clear the $1,000 deposit bonus. I also decided that I would still play $3/$6 as I could deposit the rest of my $1,800 if the need arose.

After a few days of so-so play at so-so tables (and resulting in about $80 in losses, while clearing about $40 in bonus) I had a night I won't forget for a long time. I was two-tabling $3/$6 and chatting online with Quadman at the time and he saw most of it unfold. I typically buy into a $3/$6 table for $200 (yes, 30+ BB is a lot for limit, but I don't like reloading), and that night was no different.

Well, every single hand I played at one of the tables, I couldn't seem to miss. My stack just kept growing. $300. $350. I finally remarked on it to Quadman when I hit $400 - the "double up" amount. I do not believe that I've ever had that much on the table at any level, at any site. I had no sooner said that than I hit a huge hand (perhaps the subject of a blog post in the next few days) that pushed my stack to over $500. I think my stack topped out at between $520 and $530 at that table. And it wasn't like this was a long session either - I hit this "peak" of over 50BB in profit at somewhere around 150 hands (LOL 35 BB/100 - sustainable???). I think at that point I had won 7 of 8 showdowns and had won 15 pots without a showdown. Crazy numbers.

At my other table I was up a mundane amount (comparatively!) and sitting on about $280. At one point I believe I had over $800 between the two tables, for $400 profit. I gave a little bit back in the next few blind revolutions, but signed off for the night with a profit of $379 in just over 300 hands played between the two tables.

Needless to say, this is by far my largest win (in $$$) in a day - looking back at a post from about 11 months ago lamenting that I've never had a +$100 day makes this win kind of humorous. But in all reality, I don't know if I've had any days since that post that are even half the size of this win (again, in $$$ - I've had slightly bigger days in terms of BB).

If this is what 2008 has in store for me, bring it on! Then again, who knows - maybe my doomswitch will be thrown and my next post will be "I dropped two buyins at $3/$6 - WTF?!?!"