Monday, January 07, 2008

Anatomy of a Streak

So I logged onto Sportsbook tonight and after seeing some pretty dead tables decided to go through my hand history from the other night just to see how insane it all was. And this is how it went:

After the first 61 hands at the table I find myself with $197.50, a bit less than my starting stack. I have been pretty tight, only putting money in the pot 6 times in that span (3 times winning with flop c-bets, 1 turn fold with whiffed AKs after being c/r-ed by BB on 976 flop and 5 came on turn) and the following two semi-interesting hands:

Hand 45: I raise KK UTG, MP cold caller, BB calls. Flop AJ8 2-tone. BB checks, I bet, MP raises, BB calls, I fold. I figure at that point either the raiser or caller is sure to have an A. I then get sick as they check it down. MP shows QJo FTW. Crap.

Hand 46: (yes next hand!) CO openraises, I defend in BB w/J9s. Flop 954 2-tone. I c/r flop, he 3-bets, I call. Turn T, I check, he checks behind. River K, check/check and MHIG vs. missed 76 OESD.

Then at hand 62, the fireworks start. All hands not shown are folds or free looks in the BB combined with c/f flop.

Hand 62: I 3-bet an EP raiser with KK OTB. EP calls. Board J74-8-8 and he c/c's me down and MHIG.

Hand 67: I openraise AA in EP, MP calls (same cold-caller as hand 45, above), BB calls. Flop 866r. BB checks, I bet, MP calls, BB folds. Turn A. I bet, MP raises, I 3-bet, MP calls. River J, I bet, MP calls and MHIG for a nice $70.50 pot.

Hand 72: I limp behind two limpers in CO w/99, button raises, SB folds, all call. Flop AQJr. Amazingly, it is checked around. Turn 9 (LOL). Checked to me, I bet, only button calls. River A, I bet, button folds.

Hand 81: I 3-bet a HJ openraiser w/99 OTB, he calls. Flop A54 2-tone and my c-bet takes it down.

Hand 87: I raise AA UTG, MP calls, BB calls (this pattern sound familiar?). Flop Q52 2-tone. BB checks, I bet, MP calls, BB folds. Turn 6, I bet, MP folds.

(my stack is now $308.70, first time it has surpassed $300. 26 hands in.)

Hand 95: I raise AQo UTG, BB calls. Flop TT3, 2-tone. I bet both flop and turn and check behind the river on TT3-7-9 board and MHIG vs. AJ.

Hand 96: I defend my BB vs button openraise with T9o. I c/r a 655 flop, button only calls and folds to my turn bet. Yes, a bit frisky but he tended to be a folder.

Hand 105: I raise a CO openlimper w/KTs from SB, only CO calls. Flop 532 2-tone. I bet, CO calls. Turn T. I bet, CO calls. River K, I bet, CO calls and MHIG.

Hand 107: I openraise AJo in CO, BB calls. Flop QT9 single-suited and I have the A of trump. He check/calls. Turn K giving my the straight with flush redraw. He check/calls. River 3 completing my nut flush. He bets, I raise, he calls and MHIG

Hand 111: I 3-bet an EP raiser w/JJ in MP. BB calls, EP calls. Flop A53r. BB checks, I bet, MP folds, BB calls. Turn K, and BB folds to my bet.

(my stack is now $400.50, first time it has surpassed $400. 50 hands in.)

Hand 117: I openraise QTo in CO, SB calls, BB calls. Flop KQ2r. Checked to me, I bet, only SB calls. Turn A and SB folds to my bet.

Hand 123: I get a free look in my BB w/JTo vs two limpers. Flop T95r. I bet, I get one MP caller. Turn 7, I bet, MP calls. River 3, I bet, MP folds.

Hand 127: I limp behind an EP and MP limper w/K9s in CO (yes, this is a tad loose). I c/f a whiffed flop.

Hand 138: I raise EP limper w/QQ in HJ, only EP calls. Flop A53 2-tone and my c-bet takes it down

Hand 145: I am in the SB with JJ and the details of the hand will be subject of my NEXT blog post, but suffice it to say I showdown for a $123 pot.

(my stack is now $518.50, first time it has surpassed $500. 84 hands in.)

Hand 148: I raise EP limper w/AA in HJ, SB calls, BB calls, EP calls. Flop 743 2-tone. My c-bet is only called by BB. Turn 2 and my bet takes it down.

At that point my stack was at its peak of $538.50, a profit of $341 (almost 57 BB) in 87 hands.

So, I'll start the counting / stats for you:

I was dealt the following premium hands: 9 pairs (AA 3 times, KK and QQ once apiece, JJ twice, 99 twice), AQo and AJo. I also had some relatively weak-ish hands that hit good flops, held up, or were able to get opponents to fold.

I won 15 of the 16 pots that I entered (6 by showdown, 9 without a showdown) - the only pot I lost in that span where I put money in was the one small bet I lost with my loose K9s overlimp.

So, as you can plainly see, this streak was an example of the deck hitting me in the face combined with my opponents not hitting flops on my more marginal hands. The only hand I got really out-of-line with was the c/r with total air in my blind defense - all the other hands kind of played themselves. Interestingly enough, playing 16 hands out of 87 "only" puts me at a 18.4% VPIP even during this streak, so it wasn't that I was playing more hands than I should have - it is just that all of the playable ones were monsters!

No comments: