$13K - FINALLY !!!!!

Well, it has taken what seems like forever, but I've finally cracked the $13K earned barrier.

Early on, I didn't count these milestones, but for the ones that I have: from the time I passed $10K it was another....

• 34 days to $11K, then
• 112 days to $12K, then
• 195 days to $13K

Admittedly, I am playing neither as many hands nor as high limits as I used to, but if you'd have told me as I passed $11K that it was going to take over 300 days for me to earn another $2K, I'd have thought you were out of your mind.

Bankroll update in the sidebar, and back to the tables.....

$1/$2 NL ?!?!?!

Well it was finally time for my occasional trip to go play live poker. poker1eh and I pulled into the casino at about 6:00 PM Friday only to be met with a blank stare when asking about a $3/$6 limit game. We were the first two put on the "interested" list and (as it turns out) that list never got above 5 people the entire time we were there.

So, it was a matter of turning around and going home or deciding to dip our toes in the smallest NL game in the room - $1/$2 NL, $50 min, $200 max buyin. Since I had just taken out $200 CDN to play $3/$6 I figure a decent plan is to buy in for $100 (twice if necessary) and then leave if I get felted twice. poker1eh had pretty much the same idea, so we throw our names as 5th and 6th on the waiting list for $1/$2 NL and then hope that we get thrown on the same table.

About 45 minutes later, there are enough people to start a new table and a dealer arrives to service that need and we're off and running! poker1eh and I choose consecutive seats (me with position on him LDO) and about 5 people post dead blinds on the first hand to get us up and running. I have some K-rag, hit a K on the flop, and take it down with a small bet on the flop. Always nice to win the first hand!

The table was very-very limpy and super passive. A typical hand was 5 limpers, a checked BB, and an $8 bet takes it town on the flop. We are a few orbits in when the only hand that really matters to my whole night occurs:

I am sitting on about $130 and overlimp Kc 9c in MP. I believe we go 6-ways for a single bet.

Flop is nearly the best flop I can imagine: Ac 9d 4c giving me a pair and the nut flush draw.

It is checked to me, I bet $10 into the $12 pot and get insta-raised to $25 by the next guy to act. Folded back to me. I obviously have a monster draw here (I figure I am equity-neutral vs. almost any Ace) and my only decision was to call or to shove right here. I didn't know my exact stack size at the time, but I did know that a shove would be a way-over-pot size bet, and (for whatever reason) though that was inappropriate. So, I just called the $15 after about 20 seconds of deliberation. $62, I have about $100 behind, and the aggressor easily has me covered. I exaggeratedly check dark before the turn is even dealt.

Turn was the beautiful, beautiful 2c. I wait for the guy to act, but it appears he didn't see me check dark, so I reiterate my check. He bets $40, I hesitate (not long enough to Hollywood, but it wasn't instantaneous), and announce "all-in" pushing my chips forward.

Here's where it goes a little sideways for me. He asks for a count and even though my brain is screaming "let the dealer count it idiot !!!!" my hands are out there trying to cut the chips into neat piles and failing miserably. I am shaking, and I don't think it is too subtle at all. At some point after what seems like minutes of fumbling (but was probably only 10 seconds) I actually do motion for the dealer to count. "$104, $74 more to call" announces the dealer after a sickeningly smooth cutting of my piles into neat stacks. I feel like such a dumbass, even now recalling the moment.

The guy starts talking "Man, why'd you have to go and do that? What do you have?" and tanks for what I'd say is 2 minutes at least. Easily the longest decision so far and (as it would turn out) the longest decision of the night. He cuts $74 more out of his stack and just stares at it for a bit, looking back and forth between it and the rest of his stack. He finally pushes it forward with a "call" and flips AQo!!! Wow. I'm thinking the whole time he is on a set or a minimum of two pair to take that long to call me, unless he took my near epileptic-seizure while counting my chips as nervousness from a bluff . I'm not quite sure what he thought AQo was ahead of (except that bluff), but I'm obviously glad he called me drawing dead. $270 pot shipitplz.

Believe it or not, not much else happened after that. Small up-and-down variations in the stack. The table got significantly more aggro as the night went on, and (in particular) I had a large stacked guy sit to my immediate left and although he was playing crap cards, it severely constrained what I could do, especially since he kept hitting with all of them. I bet he had $500 in front of him by the time I left. A real-life demonstration of the power of position I suppose.

poker1eh was having significantly less luck than I. Four times he flopped big draws (including 3 of them being OESD + pair combos) and got it all in on the flop against hands that had no business calling his push, and whiffed every one of them. When he lost his final chips from his $200 I finished out the revolution and went for a drink and snacks with him, cashing out for $210 (+$110 CDN profit).

Overall the night was fun - I had a much better time when the table was limpy-passive, but I got increasingly uncomfortable as it got more aggro and especially once the big stack guy was to my left. Would I do it again? Well, considering it might be my only chance to play live poker, I don't know that I have a choice....

Taxes

Well, it being tax day, I thought I'd finally drag out a calculation to see what the tax rate on my poker playing is. I am doing this calculation for the first time in this post, so I don't quite know what the number will be, but it will be quite high.

So, why isn't this calculation trivial? Why can't I just take my Federal marginal tax rate (25%) and my state marginal rate (4.35%) to get 29.35%? Ah, if only it were that simple. The problem is that poker income is counted by "session" whereby all winning sessions are added to your Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), and all your losing sessions are taken as Schedule A deductions, much like mortgage interest and property tax. Gory details in a previous post I made in the topic here. Why does this matter?

1. Certain deductions and tax credits start to "phase out" as you increase your AGI, regardless of what your actual taxable income winds up being.
2. Michigan does not count Schedule A deductions in your taxes - they pretty much tax you on your Federal AGI only.

The combination of these two items will raise my marginal poker-tax-rate, which I will calculate as the amount of extra tax I paid due to the fact I played poker divided by the amount of money I made.

The way my year wound up, I made a profit of $4,725.62, broken up as

• $2,035.62 through play at the tables
• $2,690.00 through bonus

But as mentioned, I have to "break up" that $2,035.62 into winning and losing sessions for tax purposes, then add back in the amount of the bonus as a giant winning session. When looked at this way, the numbers are:

• $16,041.34 in winning sessions
• $11,315.72 in losing sessions

Note that the difference between those two numbers is exactly my profit of $4,725.62 as expected.

So, let's start with the easy part. The amount of Federal tax I will pay on this is simply my Federal marginal tax rate times my profit, since I do get to claim my Schedule A deductions. I thus pay $4,725.62 * 25% = $1,181.41 in Federal tax.

Next, the specific credit in my case is a loss of $50 in tax credit for every increase of $1,000 in AGI, or 5%. Therefore, since my AGI increased by over $16K, the amount of tax credit my poker playing cost me is $802.07 ($16,041.34 * 5%). And, no, this is not double counting anything, as this is a (lost) tax credit which is calculated after tax rates have already been applied.

Next, as mentioned Michigan taxes only on AGI, so the amount of extra Michigan tax I pay due to pokering is $16,041.34 * 4.35% = $697.80.

Adding these numbers up, my tax bill is sobering $2,681.28 larger than it would be if I didn't play at all, resulting in a marginal tax rate of 56.7% on my poker winnings. Looked at another way, all the bonus I cleared in 2008 was almost exactly enough to cover my tax bill, leaving me with "just" my profit from the tables. Believe it or not, this number is somewhere in the ballpark of what I thought it would be when I started the calculation (I had thought 50-mid 60%).

It really does give me pause on whether I should even bother to play at all. The way the tax law is set up (and due to the wacky Michigan taxation), it is entirely possible that I could wind up owing more taxes at the end of a year than I made profit.

Three quick examples:

1. Breakeven year at tables, profitable overall: $17K in winnings, $17K in losses, $2K in bonus would have me with a $2K profit for the year but stuck with a incremental tax bill of $2,277. Admittedly, I'd probably make more than $2K in bonus if I put in that much action, but it at least shows that it is possible. This is a best case scenario out of the three examples, actually.
2. Breakeven year overall: (losses at tables, make it up in bonus): $17K in winnings, $20K in losses, $3K in bonuses leaves me breakeven for the year but stuck with a tax bill of $1,870.
3. Losing year overall: $17K in winnings, $22K in losses, $3K in bonuses leaves me in the hole by $2K for the year and stuck with a tax bill of $1,870.

Is it worth it? Having over half your money taken away as a (solidly?) winning player, with the risk of more-than-all your money being taken? Especially for a game that drives me crazy half the time?

Q1 2009

At the bottom of this graph (about March 6) I made a goal for myself to get back to even for the first quarter of 2009, as if I didn't it would be only my second losing quarter since I started.

Boo-yah.

3 Year Biggest and Most

Don't feel like doing this on a year-by-year basis as I've done it before, so will just do the biggest 3 in each category.

Most BB won, day
11/22/2008: +82.1 BB
4/8/2006: +70.6 BB
10/31/2008: +66.1 BB

Altogether 13 days of 50+ BB. Would never have guessed that two of my best days were in late 2008 - I don't remember going on runs like that. Even more surprising when you realize they are contained within my current 27K hand breakeven stretch.

Most BB lost, day
3/5/2008: -65.0 BB
3/18/2007: -60.0 BB
11/5/2008: -59.1 BB

Altogether 6 days of -50+ BB.

Most BB won, week
12/10/2007 - 12/16/2007: +112.3 BB
6/23/2008 - 6/29/2008: +104.6 BB
5/1/2006 - 5/7/2006: +94.7 BB

Altogether 29 weeks of +50+ BB, although only 4 of these in the last year, and only 1 in the last 7 months.

Most BB lost, week
3/12/2007 - 3/18/2007: -98.0 BB
3/5/2007 - 3/11/2007: -95.6 BB
3/27/2006 - 4/2/2006: -84.0 BB

Altogether 11 weeks of -50+ BB, only 2 of them in the past year. Yeah, March 2007 sucked, and evidently March 2006 was not much better. Doesn't bode well for the rest of March 2009. In a graph:

I am (frankly) amazed that I've gone on two separate winning streaks of 12+ weeks, while my longest losing streaks are one of 5 weeks (but what a doozy THAT one was), one of 4 weeks, and all others are 3 weeks or less.

Most $$$ won, day
11/22/2008: +$417.67
1/5/2008: +$380.90
10/31/2008: +$363.26

10 days of +$200+ (all contained in 2008).

Most $$$ lost, day
11/5/2008: -$297.00
10/26/2008: -$248.75
1/13/2008: -$241.50

Amazingly every single one of these is within a week of my largest $$ days listed above.

11 days of -$200+, most clustered in a very small space right around -$200.

Most $$$ won, week
6/23/2008 - 6/29/2008: $560.95
3/10/2008 - 3/16/2008: $466.48
10/29/2007 - 11/4/2007: $447.31

13 weeks of $200+

Most $$$ lost, week
5/12/2008 - 5/18/2008: -$414.75
3/5/2007 - 3/11/2007: -$298.00
11/3/2008 - 11/9/2008: -$291.85

6 weeks of -$200+. That May week is a huge loss compared to other losing weeks, although immediately after it I went on a 12-consecutive-week winning streak for just over $2250. In graphical form:
Fun stuff.

3 Years of Poker

Just a short post with some graphs / stats on:

• Just over 3 years of poker (2/7/06 to 2/15/09)
• Over 140K hands

On to the numbers.....
Comments:

• Nice to see that I am profitable at most of the levels, although it always hurts to have the levels where you are a loser be the highest levels...
• I either need to learn to play 6-max better, or just stay the hell off those tables. Nearly 40K hands of 6-max, and all I've got to show for it is a hole in my bankroll of about $160 (although to be fair I am up 279 BB total for a 0.7 BB/100 rate shorthanded). Maybe I just need to not suck so much at the higher levels....
• I need to lay off the suckitude at $5/$10 as well. My losses there in 700 hands are over one-eighth of my entire win over 3 years / 140k+ hands!
• Overall 1.3 BB/100 is not where I thought I'd be (or where I'd like to be, frankly). I think something close to 2 BB/100 should be sustainable and my 30K hands of $3/$6 full-ring at 1.7 BB/100 shows that it is at least within reach. Or maybe I'm just fooling myself and as the games have gotten tougher, there just isn't enough edge at the levels I play to support 2BB/100. I guess we'll see.

Next, BB's won per month:
Comments:

• Nice to see that (most) months are solidly profitable, with the exception of the March From Hell that had me giving up the game for 2 months.
• Also nice to go on a sick heater of 600+ BB in the next 5 months after taking the game back up.
• When rolled up into quarters (below), I've been BB-profitable across every single quarter except the give-up-the-game quarter and the current quarter. I better get to work on the current quarter so i can keep my streak alive...
  

Next, the BB graph:

Comments:

• Not a lot to say here that hasn't been said in other posts. Although some of those swings feel quite large (in particular, the 300+ BB swing downswing early), in the grand scheme of things this graph isn't that swingy.
• There are few 20K+ hand breakeven stretches in there, including a 27K hand stretch that I am on currently. Thank goodness for bonuses.

Same graph in $:

Comments:

• The March From Hell rears it's ugly head again. if you look really closely in the graph, I actually drop below $0 cumulative (briefly) - 57K hands with $0 to show for it (other than bonus). Wow.
• Near the right side of the graph I went on an extreme heater whereby I won about $2,400 (over half my total earn for 3 years!) in about 2 months / 7K hands.
• Since that heater, I've been on a 7 month, 27K hand stretch where I am down $600 through play, breakeven in BB. Again, thank goodness for bonuses.

Wow, so much for a short post....

Bonus Clearing and Downswings

Well, any of you who know me know that I can't throw out a statement like I made at the end of the last blog post about "somehow" figuring out how to graph something without subsequently figuring out exactly how to do it. So, that being said:

Below is the graph (in BB) of my winnings-at-the-table (in blue) and total winnings including bonus clearing (in red). All of these hands are at Cake skins, and the span of the graph is just under 75K hands. In my observation, Cake bonuses clear at almost exactly 1 BB/100 across multiple levels, so that is the assumption made for this graph.

I have made ~1500 BB in ~75K hands = 2.0 BB/100. And since the bonus clearing rate is 1BB/100, my overall win rate is a tidy 3 BB/100.

Although not pictured, if I could stay away from the 6-max games my results would be 1283 BB in 55K hands for 2.31 BB/100 (3.31 BB/100 post-bonus, with over 80% of those hands being $2/$4 or $3/$6 full-ring). Will I learn? Your guess is as good as mine.

My largest downswing at the tables (in blue) occurred very late in the graph as I was approaching 1500 BB. Checking the actual numbers, that was a prolonged 160 BB downswing in slightly under 9000 hands. There are also a few 120-ish BB downswings scattered in there, including a very sharp one as I approached 1100 BB for the first time - I dropped 121 BB in 2139 hands. Otherwise, nothing much to "write home about" as they say.

Now look at the red graph - the prolonged 160 BB downswing has shallowed out quite a bit - in fact, the actual "start" of the downswing occurs later since my bonus clearing (evidently) covered the first part of the downswing. That particular downswing is reduced to almost exactly 100 BB in 4800 hands. Likewise, the 121 BB downswing is reduced to just under 100 BB (as could probably be guessed - in 2139 hands, I'd clear 21.39 BB).

So as to be expected, the bonus clearing helps cushion the downswings, especially the ones that take a long time to unfold. And I was (evidently) also correct that no downswing that I've had exceeds 100 BB once bonus clearing is taken into account.

But what does that mean as far as account balances? That's really what downswings are all about, right? Seeing the palpable evidence that you have hundreds of dollars less than you used to have? Perhaps it shouldn't be that way, but I don't think I can buy a Starbucks or an iPod with a BB, only a $$. Thus:


The blue line "only" corresponds to play at the table, so although I lost a tad bit over $1,000 through play during that late downswing I already mentioned, my account balance (red) "only" suffered $640 during that timespan. The other big downswing(s) are a tad under $500.

You can also clearly see that (as mentioned last time), I am still down $200 through play in my last 18K hands, but luckily have cleared over $900 in bonus over that time. That'll buy a lot of White Chocolate Mochas, and maybe even a few iPods.

Good Day Puts Me over $12K

Had my best day ever yesterday (over $400):


Unfortunately, all it allowed me to do is break exactly even (OK, -$0.42 to be exact) over the last two-ish months:



As always, I am very thankful for bonus clearing. In fact, I noticed that since the last time I updated my bankroll on the webpage in mid-August I am down about $150 through play on the tables ($3740.39 vs. $3590.29), but have cleared over $900 in bonus over that time.

One of these days when I figure out how do to it, I'll post a "raw" graph showing what I've won at the tables, and then a graph that shows what it looks like with bonus clearing included. It makes the downswings a bit more bearable, for sure. In fact, I'd be surprised if I've had a Cake downswing bigger than 120-ish BB once the bonus clearing is added in.

No poker tonight, likely - I've got to watch the 24 preview!

New Biggest Pot, By Far

Some background before the hand:

I've been at the table for about 2 revolutions, and the guy two seats to my right is a complete and total maniac. He is betting / raising at every opportunity on every street with any two cards. I may have seen him fold preflop once, and I may have seen him only call on a post-flop street once. Otherwise he is putting in max action on every street with any two.

The way in which the rest of the table is reacting to this wackiness is by doing a lot of cold-calling preflop (obviously trying to get into pots with him), but very rarely trying to 3-bet. So my strategy is either to iso-3-bet him myself with a suitable hand (pretty much anything I could take directly to a showdown - pairs and Aces), or to cold-call myself with any hand that can benefit from massive multiway pots (pretty much suited connectors).

I have already cold-called 76s a few hands previous and gotten 6 ways action for 2 bets preflop. Unfortunately, I had the whiff-of-all-whiffs on the flop and was forced to fold. Then came the hand:

UTG limps and the maniac raises and I look down at T9s. Here we go.....

Limit: $3/$6, 10 players

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is HJ with T♦ 9♦

UTG calls, 1 fold, Maniac raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button 3-bets,SB folds, BB caps!, UTG calls, Maniac calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Well, that was certainly not typical. 5 ways capped PF.

Flop: Q♦ 8♠ 2♦ (20 SB, 5 players)

Flush draw. Looks like I'm along for the ride. Hang on.......

BB checks, UTG checks, Maniac bets, Hero calls, Button raises, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Maniac caps!, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Yup, 5 ways capped here too. TWENTY big bets in the pot already going to the turn. Pull that seatbelt tighter.....

Turn: 4♦ (20 BB, 5 players)

BB checks, UTG checks, Maniac bets, Hero raises, Button folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Maniac caps!, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Well, I guess we got the button out. 4 ways capped on the turn. THIRTY SIX big bets going to the river. BB and UTG started this hand with less than 12 BB and both will be all-in on the river.

River: J♣ (24BB, 4 players)

BB bets, UTG raises, Maniac 3-bets, Hero caps!, BB calls all-in, UTG calls all-in, Maniac folds.

Final pot: 45.33 BB

BB showed AA (with A diamonds - lucky no diamond rivered), UTG showed KK and I scoop a $272 pot (net of exactly $200)

So many comments:

• LOL BB check-3-betting his AA on flop and turn
• ROTFL UTG limping and calling all these bets all the way with KK, then all of a sudden thinking his KK is good on the river.
• ROTFLMAO Maniac folding river for one bet in a 45+ BB pot.

Beat: if BB and UTG have full stacks, $26.50 more goes in this pot. :-)

Here's what that looks like in a picture:

The Three Phases of Cake

1. Solidity: 8 months of 3.5 BB/100
2. Stagnation: 4.5 months breakeven
3. Boomswitch: 2+ months of 5.7 BB/100

New Biggest Pot

My first hand at the table. And this occurred after the last graph posting too....

Limit: $3/$6, 10 players

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with K♦ 6♣

2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: J♦ T♦ 9♦ (6SB, 6 players)

SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Yes, you can probably argue with both of my plays on this street. So sue me. :-)

Turn: Q♦ (8BB, 5 players)

SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 raises, Button folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 caps, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: A♣ (24BB, 4 players)

SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, MP2 raises all-in $9, SB folds, Hero calls.

Final pot: 26.75 BB ($160.50)

MP2 had the 8 of diamonds for the other one-card straight flush. No idea what the other two had. Hate to be selfish, but if the guy had more bets in his stack, I'm sure the river gets capped as well for a pot approaching $200. And if one of the other guys had a set and the board had paired on the river......

I actually netted $118.50 in this pot, by far my largest profit in one pot (my next largest was netting $90 off my JJJ hand I posted about a while back.)

Graph Since June

Brag: 5.5 BB/100 for two months
Beat: not able to cash out any of the money
Variance: $3/$6 shorthanded and $5/$10 full kicks my ass every time I choose to sit down, or these numbers would be even higher. :-)

$11K

Well, a little over a month since my $10K post, I get to make my $11K post. Needless to say I have been running very well lately - I looked it up the other night and I'm up almost $2K just since June 1, and that doesn't count any bonus cleared during that time - that's just from the tables themselves. Graphs later, maybe. I am absolutely certain I am tempting the doomswitch gods by even mentioning a good run, but....

Or maybe the "doomswitch" portion of this run is that the Cake skin I am playing on has lost their check processor and I can't actually lay my hands on any of the $$$. I have a $1200+ withdrawal in limbo right now with no timeframe for resolution. Grrrrr.

$10K !

Well, last night I finally passed the $10,000 earned mark. Amazing. I'd write a bit more about it, but have a few more bonus $$$ to clear, so I'll post a few graphs:

Graph of last night - the night that put me over $10K:


The first 60-ish hands were against a 100/100 maniac at 2/4 6-max. The rest were 2/4 and 3/6 full-ring. Don't know if my heart can take too many more nights that start out like that....

Graph of this last 3-month bonus:


Graph of all Cake hands I've played:



Scary thing? I've still have earned more at blackjack in the few months I played it than I have through in-game Poker play (excluding bonuses). Bankroll update with gory detail in the sidebar.

Back to the tables!

Punch to the Stomach

Quick mind-clearing blog post. I have run horribly, horribly bad over the past 4 days:


Losing 68 cents per hand played = sustainable? Admittedly, this is "only" a 100 BB downswing, but for some reason it stings quite a quite more than the other recent 100 BB downswings.

So, in looking for the positive I looked at how I've done overall at Cake; I am a winner at 11 of the 13 levels I've played. The only exceptions:

$1/$2 6-max: down less than 2 BB overall in 4800 hands.
$5/$10 FR: down less than 11 BB in 249 hands.

Every other level is positive, although my $2/$4 FR graph is a bit sickening:


Now I wish I wouldn't have looked at that....let's find a good one to get the confidence back up: $3/$6 6-max where I table-select like crazy:

Small sample size, LDO, but I'll take whatever shot of confidence I can get at this point.

Brief Bonus Clearing Update

Long time, no write - it occurs to me that I've only written one post in the last month. Shame on me, but I can't honestly say much of note has gone on at the tables. I haven't gotten a lot of hands in, none of them have been horribly interesting (except maybe one that I'll attach for the hell of it at the end), and haven't had any big swings one way or the other. Every night is +/- $100, no biggie, although it is still amazing to me that I can shrug off swings of that magnitude.

Due to not getting many hands in, I am quite far behind in clearing my latest bonus: as of last night I am 35% though the bonus time period, but only 20% ($100) cleared. I just haven't been getting many hands in for a variety of reasons (been busy, bad table conditions, etc.) Clearing the last $400 shouldn't be an issue if I put my mind to it - hell, I cleared a bonus at a rate of almost $275 / month earlier this year - but don't know if I'll have the time or motivation. We'll see.

And now on to the hand.

Limit Holdem Ring, $2/$4 (6-max)


Pre-flop: (6 players) CO posts a dead blind
Hero is BB with 5♣ 3♣

2 folds, CO checks, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: 9♣ 6♦ 2♣ (8.0 SB, 4 players)

SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, SB calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: K♦ (6 BB, 4 players)

SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, SB calls, Hero calls, CO folds.

River: 4♠ (9 BB, 3 players)

SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero caps!, Button calls.

Final pot: 17 BB ($68)

Results: Button showed K♣ K♠

Preflop was probably a tad marginal, but figured I was going to be getting 7:1 on my call by the time it got around (assuming nobody LRR-ed).

Flop you could argue should have been a raise for me with my "monster" 13-out draw (flush draw + gutshot)

Turn standard, and I decided to c/r river on the (apparent) blankiest-of-blanks. I can't imagine what must have been going through his head on the river when c/r-ed on a K9642 non-flush board. Luckily (for me) he had the second nuts, and I showed down the nuts for a nice pot due to the Cake boomswitch being in the correct position.

Actually the best part of this hand (for me) was getting to show down 53s - not something a TAG like me gets to do like, ever. I'd love to see the notes people tok after that hand, though....

A Few $5/$10 Hands

OK, so it appears that I lied - I enjoyed my time off so much, I not only haven't played much (maybe 200 hands in 2 weeks, where I'd normally get 10 times that number of hands in), but haven't taken the time to write any blog posts. Now that two separate people have mocked me about this (surely a significant fraction of my "readers"), I figured I may as well churn one out - my two most memorable $5/$10 hands from my last stint.

Limit Holdem Ring game, $5/$10
10 players

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with A♣ A♠

Yay - an AA hand. You just know that this is going to be a trainwreck, right?

4 folds, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: 5♥ 3♦ 3♥ (9.5SB, 3 players)

Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button folds.

Turn: T♣ (5.75BB, 2 players)

Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls.

The only hands I am behind are specifically TT and 55 - there is no way he has a 3 in his hand at all. When he only calls my 3-bet, I know I am ahead.

River: 4♥ (11.75BB, 2 players)

Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

Final pot: 15.75 BB ($157.50)

Results: MP2 showed A♥ T♥

Like I said......

Actually, the positiveness I take from this hand is the turn 3-bet. It shows that I am not playing weak-tight while playing above my normal level - that I can still read hands and act on those reads regardless of the higher stakes. The negativeness (if there is any) is that I couldn't bet/fold the river, but I simply can't fold an overpair getting over 14:1 vs. an unknown. But still, $70 of my own money down the toilet in one hand.

The next hand below is from the same table, about 30 minutes later.

Limit Holdem Ring game, $5/$10
10 players

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with J♠ J♦

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, Hero 3-bets, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: T♠ 4♠ J♥ (10.5SB, 3 players)

[mental dialogue]
Holy crap, holy crap, holy crap - I've got top set at $5/$10, but man is that a drawy board.
[/mental dialogue]

UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: J♣ (6.75BB, 3 players)

[mental dialogue]
Holy crap, holy crap, holy crap - I've just turned quads at $5/$10, please please someone be slowplaying TT.
[/mental dialogue]

UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, ...

[mental dialogue]
OMFG$$$$$ - I've just been checkraised on turn the while holding the mortal nuts at $5/$10. This is going to totally make up for the AA fiasco. I briefly think about slowplaying, but realize that if he's got a hand he's willing to give action on that board with, any bet that misses going in is a bet I can't get back later on the river.
[/mental dialogue]

... UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 folds.

[mental dialogue]
OMFGWTFBBQ - nice check-raise-fold line, sir.
[/mental dialogue]

Results: Final pot: 10.75 BB ($107.50)

Bonus Cleared

Well, I finally got done clearing my 3-month bonus on Sportsbook last night. Or, rather, as much of the bonus as I could possibly get cleared; turns out I played nearly 18,000 hands in three months to clear $820 of the possible $1,000 bonus. That is a lot of hands for me, and it is time to take a little break from playing and chill.

The overall breakdown of the hands / levels I've played during the bonus was:

• 43% of the hands were at $3/$6 full-ring
• 40% of the hands were $2/$4 full-ring
• 10% of the hands were $1/$2 6-max

The remaining 7% of the hands were scattered amongst levels as diverse as $0.04/$0.08 6-max through $5/$10 full-ring.

So, what about results? Well, I've already had a few blog posts about the swings I've had, so this graph should be no surprise:


I'm thankful I at least I ended the bonus to the positive, including the nice +20BB quick session to end the bonus last night.

But hidden within this graph are some massive differences between my performances at different levels. In particular:

$2/$4 full-ring:


No, your eyes do not deceive you - that is an over 170BB downswing buried in there for a final result of -$588 and a winrate of -2.07 BB/100 over the span of my bonus.

$3/$6 full ring:


Yup, always nice to run better at the higher level; $1,247 and 2.72 BB/100 over slightly more hands than I played at $2/$4. Note to self: play only $3/$6 during my next bonus......

From a pure monetary standpoint, I made a total of about $1,400 in the three months; $820 from bonus clearing and about $580 from play. If I could manage to not suck so bad at $2/$4 (at the same time keeping up the winrate at $3/$6), the number through play would have obviously been a lot higher, but.....

I've also reached a few milestones recently - more than 100K hands played since I started online and over $9K earned overall from my online adventures. A paltry sum when compared to poker1eh's Stars Step 6 win for $12K the other night, but I'll take it.

Next post: some overall stats from all my Cake hands, and maybe some specific hands from $5/$10.

AA Wins ?!?!?

Seems impossible that AA could win in:

• A 6 way capped pot preflop
• At $3/$6
• With a limp-capper (so I didn't even get to cap!)
  
• With a single suited flop
  
• With two broadway cards
  
• Unimproved

Miracles never cease:

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with A♣ A♠

UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: K♣ J♣ 9♣(24.5SB, 6 players)

BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises all-in $6, BB folds, UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

LOL limp-capper check/folding flop.

Turn: 5♦ (16.25BB, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 15.25BB, Sidepot 1: 1BB)

UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: 7♦ (18.25BB, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 15.25BB, Sidepot 1: 3BB)

UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final pot: 20.25 BB ($121.50)

UTG showed KQo, MP3 showed AKo

Yet Another +100 BB, Another -100 BB

Insanity