Bonus Clearing and Downswings

Well, any of you who know me know that I can't throw out a statement like I made at the end of the last blog post about "somehow" figuring out how to graph something without subsequently figuring out exactly how to do it. So, that being said:

Below is the graph (in BB) of my winnings-at-the-table (in blue) and total winnings including bonus clearing (in red). All of these hands are at Cake skins, and the span of the graph is just under 75K hands. In my observation, Cake bonuses clear at almost exactly 1 BB/100 across multiple levels, so that is the assumption made for this graph.

I have made ~1500 BB in ~75K hands = 2.0 BB/100. And since the bonus clearing rate is 1BB/100, my overall win rate is a tidy 3 BB/100.

Although not pictured, if I could stay away from the 6-max games my results would be 1283 BB in 55K hands for 2.31 BB/100 (3.31 BB/100 post-bonus, with over 80% of those hands being $2/$4 or $3/$6 full-ring). Will I learn? Your guess is as good as mine.

My largest downswing at the tables (in blue) occurred very late in the graph as I was approaching 1500 BB. Checking the actual numbers, that was a prolonged 160 BB downswing in slightly under 9000 hands. There are also a few 120-ish BB downswings scattered in there, including a very sharp one as I approached 1100 BB for the first time - I dropped 121 BB in 2139 hands. Otherwise, nothing much to "write home about" as they say.

Now look at the red graph - the prolonged 160 BB downswing has shallowed out quite a bit - in fact, the actual "start" of the downswing occurs later since my bonus clearing (evidently) covered the first part of the downswing. That particular downswing is reduced to almost exactly 100 BB in 4800 hands. Likewise, the 121 BB downswing is reduced to just under 100 BB (as could probably be guessed - in 2139 hands, I'd clear 21.39 BB).

So as to be expected, the bonus clearing helps cushion the downswings, especially the ones that take a long time to unfold. And I was (evidently) also correct that no downswing that I've had exceeds 100 BB once bonus clearing is taken into account.

But what does that mean as far as account balances? That's really what downswings are all about, right? Seeing the palpable evidence that you have hundreds of dollars less than you used to have? Perhaps it shouldn't be that way, but I don't think I can buy a Starbucks or an iPod with a BB, only a $$. Thus:


The blue line "only" corresponds to play at the table, so although I lost a tad bit over $1,000 through play during that late downswing I already mentioned, my account balance (red) "only" suffered $640 during that timespan. The other big downswing(s) are a tad under $500.

You can also clearly see that (as mentioned last time), I am still down $200 through play in my last 18K hands, but luckily have cleared over $900 in bonus over that time. That'll buy a lot of White Chocolate Mochas, and maybe even a few iPods.