Long Time, No Write

Well, I've been massively busy at both home and work, so not much time to keep up on the ol' blog. Hopefully this will fix that for a bit.

A few weeks ago I purchased PokerAce - an alternative Heads-Up display for PokerTracker stats. It is easily worth the $25, if only for the below features:

• It flashes mucked cards at showdown, freeing you from having to go into the instant hand history to look for them.
• It has a selection of 30+ statistics you can overlay on any player, or have available via a quick click on the player's name. You can even color code each individual statistic based on the value of that stat.
  
• It auto-detects all your tables and immediately overlays the statistics on them, before you even sit down. This allows for immediate assessment of whether the seat you are being offered is worthwhile to even sit down at.

This becomes especially useful for sites that can be datamined.

So, between this purchase and me earning a sufficient amount at $1/$2 (6-max, anyways), I decided to take the next step in the bankroll pyramid - to take a 40 BB shot at $2/$4. I decided to take a shot at $2/$4 full ring since I would imagine the variance would be less there, even though I seem to have had more success playing 6-max. I also decided to go back to Full Tilt for two reasons:

• I would be playing under a bonus (albeit very slowly clearing)
• I could datamine the heck out of the tables before stepping in

My typical session now goes like the following:

1. Open up Full Tilt
   
2. Open up all the $2/$4 FR tables, then the $1/$2 FR tables, and as many of the $1/$2 6-max tables as I can before reaching the 16 table limit.
   
3. Let PT / PokerAce accumulate data for about 10 minutes while I go take a shower or something
   
4. Come back, look at the VPIP/PFR/etc. for all the tables in PokerAce and see if there are any immediately apparent soft spots, regardless of the level.
   
5. Get on the waiting lists for those tables, and when they come open see if the seat I am being offered is decent. If not, decline the seat but get immediately back on the waiting list.

What is a soft spot? Well, for me any FR table with a VPIP above 35 and a PFR in the single digits is a no-brainer. In the event I can't find anything perfect, I'd rather have a 29/5 table than a 40/25 table - at full ring I like to go for the low PFR tables, as they allow me to play way more hands, especially in late position. For a 6-max table finding a table with PFR in the single digits is a pipe dream, but if I can find one with something like 39/13, I'm happy.

So, how is that working for me?

Well, I have managed to rack up a total of 422 hands of $2/$4 full ring, and am down a total of $119.50 for a nice -7.08 BB/100 rate. The funny thing is that this really doesn't bother me, as I know I'm playing good poker - I bet if I went back and reviewed hands, I'd say that there are maybe 5 BB worth of mistakes in that 30 BB loss. Not that 5 BB of mistakes in that amount of hands is something to be proud of, but that the vast majority of my loss is just the usual short-term variance of having big draws not come in, having your AA and KK cracked, and making expensive second-best hands. Or maybe I was right all along that Full Tilt must be rigged. :-)

If anything, I've found the $2/$4 FR tables to be softer than their $1/$2 counterparts, which leaves me with a dilemma - do I just ride out this 40 BB challenge and then drop back to $1/$2, or do I believe what I am seeing about the game's softness and stick with it beyond the 40 BB challenge? I haven't made up my mind yet. I do know that it still bugs me that I've dropped back in the red for $1/$2 full ring and will (at the very least) drop back long enough to rectify that situation. Of course, the skeptics among you will point out that if I can't beat $1/$2 full ring, I have no business stepping in a $2/$4 FR game. Shut up, you.

I just find it bizarre that I am up well over 100 BB at $1/$2 6-max and down something like 20 BB at $1/$2 full ring over about the same number of hands (5000-ish). Either:

• this is just variance
• I really rock at 6-max
• I really suck at FR
• there are far more fish at 6-max

or some combination of any of the above. Maybe $2/$4 6-max is my next step, but I doubt it.

In live poker news, poker1eh and I are going to head off to Casino Windsor the Wednesday after Christmas for a little $3/$6 limit and a $50+$5 No-Limit tournament. Should be interesting, since I don't think I've played a single hand of NL in well over 6 months. Maybe this weekend I'll buy into a small STT or two at FT just to refresh myself as to how that game goes, and maybe review a little HoH. The tournament pays top 5 at $1350 / $750 / $450 / $300 / $150. Hopefully I won't finish 6th again. :-)