Saturday, December 16, 2006

Full Tilt is Rigged & I Suck at Full Ring

Well, in the midst of the excitement over PokerAce and a shot at $2/$4 I evidently forgot why I was avoiding Full Tilt in the first place.

It is rigged beyond all belief. :-)

A few graphs, since I haven't had one in a blog post for a while.

The Full Tilt portion of my $2/$4 FR adventure:


For a real hoot, if you start at what turns out to be hand 104 (where I am up 4 BB), for the next 200 hands I win 3 pots of about 4 BB each and have 2 blind steals. That's it. In fact, for the last 106 hands, I don't win ANY pots except one single blind steal. Overall, down $196 in a bit over 300 hands for the rockin' loss rate you see in the graph above.

Just for kicks, my stats over those hands were:

VPIP: 15.6%
PFR: 10.7%
AF: 2.0
WtSD: 30.0%
W$@SD: 27.8%

So, nothing too out of the ordinary except I was getting to showdown slightly less than usual, but losing $ at showdown at an insane rate (my W$@SD tends to be in the 53-55% range usually).

OK, you say, but that's only about a 50 BB drop - those happen all the time. I'll even give you that one - being 50 BB down in 300 hands probably isn't even a statistical outlier at even the 10% level. Just one of those things, right?

Next exhibit: all the hands I've ever played at FT:


Yes, that last drop-off at the end is nearly 130 BB. Kinda makes my 50 BB slide at $2/$4 look puny, huh? Translated to dollar terms, that slide is $360.

OK, so off of the Full Tilt is Rigged portion of the post. How bad do I suck at FR lately?


Yup, a 130 BB slide at FR there at the end.

This in contrast to my 6-max results:


So why do I try to play FR? Why do I keep playing at FT? Maybe I'm just a moron.

(in the interest of full disclosure, since I wrote this post, I'm up 30-ish BB = $85-ish from this bottom, although only about 5 BB of this is at $2/$4. Yay me.)

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