Variance

Well, since the last blog post (only 5 days ago, mind you) I have already had another 110 BB upswing followed immediately by another 80 BB downswing. This is 4 separate, distinct upswings and downswings since the beginnning of the year, making my graph look very similar to a capital M:


These are the types of swings I remember from my Full Tilt days, and made me quit the site altogether. Again, these are "merely" 100 BB swings, but the frequency of both the upswings and downswings are just shocking. Note far hand side of the graph, where I won 3 hands virtually in a row (A4s in BB on a board of AAxAx, JJ OTB that flopped top set and turned a boat, and on another table a AJs vs TT in a SB vs BB battle where I flopped an A.) and then almost just-as immediately lost it all back.

On the upswing, all draws seem to hit and all your AK's tend to hit A high flops and are always against an AQ to pay you off. Likewise, on the downswing, all your draws miss, all your AK's either whiff or are now against AQ on AQx flops, or your 22 vs JT on an AT2 flop goes down in flames when the final board is AT2-T-J.

Too early to shout "rigged" yet (except in jest), but there is only so many times you can see A7 v. 55 on AA5-x-7 without starting to wonder.......

What Goes Up.....

...I think everyone knows the end of that saying. When I made my initial deposit at the beginning of the year I had a tad over $1,300 at Sportsbook. I almost immediately ran that up to $1,900+ due to an amazing week that has already been chronicled in my previous posts.

Then came this week, where every draw missed, and every big hand ran into a bigger hand. Every night seemed to be a $100-$200 loss. At one point last night alone I was down $260 in the middle of my session, although I made a slight comeback and ended "only" down $130. When I finished last night I popped up a graph of my results this year and found that (exclusive of bonus) at one point during last night's session I had actually given back every bit of my profit for this year and was down about $40 through play on the year. The run-up at the end of the session has me slightly in the green, but that is quite a change from this time last week. To paraphrase something from one of my "brag" posts - I just dropped 3 buy-ins at $3/$6 - WTF?

I am continually amazed at the amount of variance at limit poker. It isn't like I haven't had this kind of variance before - far from it: this downswing is "only" about 100 BB, far less than my biggest swing and not even worth mentioning in the long run. There is actually an interesting post on 2+2 right now from someone with 700K+ hands. They have a 550 BB downswing, along with a concurrent 300 BB downswing not graphed (on Cake, amazingly enough) for a total of a 850 BB downswing. Yet, in the grand scheme of the graph, it looks like not that big a deal. Really amazing / humbling.

Quite frankly, I don't know that I have the stomach for that, which means I may need to re-examine not only the levels I play, but the reason I play in the first place.

Or, I could just hope that I get boomswitched this weekend and go back to thinking that I know what I am doing.....

Big Pots

As promised in the last blog post, below is the new first place in The Biggest Pot I've Ever Won. I've also included some other memorable big pots with less commentary than the newest one.

Cake 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J♦, J♠. CO posts a blind of $3.

UTG raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold,

This pot is already is an aberration by the time it gets to me - most raised pots at this table so far are played with a raiser, maybe one cold-caller, and a blind. In no other hand so far have I seen this much cold-calling - this is not your typical cold-calling-with-crap table. I just call with JJ in the SB - with that many decent players and an A, K, or Q coming on flop 50% of the time I decide to play it like a small pair for set value. I'm sure I miss some value by failing to 3-bet, but having the worst absolute and relative position to the raiser really hurts this hand. I would probably get murdered by 2+2 on this decision, but I'm confortable with this.

Hero calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (10 SB) J♣, 5♦, 2♠ (5 players)

Well, that would be the way to flop, right? So what is my plan? Check raise the field, LDO.

Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises,

Whoa - now hold on just a sec. On that dry a board, what can the CO possibly have that he cold-called 2 preflop with and can raise that flop? Pretty much a set, or a highly discounted AJs (discounted primarily because I have most of the J's). So, change in plan - I don't want to blow the field away with a 3-bet here. New plan - call this raise, and donk the turn to trap the field (as c/r-ing the turn blows away the field too).

Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 4♠ (5 players)

Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, CO caps all-in, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

That went according to plan, although as pointed out to me in the meantime, this weird flop/turn transition depends on my opponents to be smart enough to fold for 2 more bets on the flop yet dumb enough to not see through the cold-call/donk line. Evidently only one of the three opponents I was trying to trap had this particular mental affliction.

River: (20.50 BB) 3♥ (3 players)

I'd love to say that I checked-to-induce a bluff or that since there was no money in the side pot it wasn't worth betting (as there is no way I can b/f this river), but the truth is, the fact that now any bare ace beats me scared the crap out of me.

Hero checks, UTG+2 checks.
Final Pot: 20.50 BB ($123)

I panic-checked and it got checked behind me. MHIG vs. button's 55. I didn't see what the other guy had, and the HH doesn't show. I now think this river was a bet/call, and I missed out on value by not betting it, because the answer to “what will UTG+2 call me with that I beat?” is quite obviously “whatever the hell he has been calling all these bets with so far.”

Now, a few of the pots further down the list.

Cake 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A♥, 9♥

2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A♣, A♠, 7♣ (4 players)

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 9♣ (2 players)

BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

When he donked, I figured him for at least a slowplayed A. When he 3-bet, I figured him for at least a flush. But I’ve got the nuts. Wheeeeee.

River: (13 BB) T♠ (2 players)

BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 16.5 BB ($99)

When he bets the river after my turn cap, I am sure he’s on another boat. Unless he has exactly AT, I’m gold. He turned over A7 for the flopped boat, and I 3-outered him on the turn. This was my biggest pot until the $123 one.

Cake 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K♥, Q♥.

5 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (6 SB) Q♠, Q♦, 6♠ (4 players)

Hero bets, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T♥ (4 players)

Hero bets, BB folds, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 caps, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 7♦ (3 players)

Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB ($96)

I include this one only for my rockin’ river c/r. Guy was a maniac, and at no point did I think I was behind. He actually turned over Q-crap, which was a better hand than I expected him to have, frankly.

Cake 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9♣, 9♥.

5 folds, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, MP3 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) Q♦, 9♦, 5♠ (3 players)

BB checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 5♥ (3 players)

BB checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (21.25 BB) 7♦ (3 players)

BB checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 22.5 BB ($90)

I include this one to show I can screw-the-pooch on these too. Between his preflop cap, his turn donk after my flop cap, and him 3-betting the turn I evidently put him on exactly QQ. Wrong - he flipped KK and MHIG. If I wasn't such a pansy (this should have been capped on the turn and at least 2 bets on river), this pot would have been my first $100 pot, and at $2/$4 to boot!

Anatomy of a Streak

So I logged onto Sportsbook tonight and after seeing some pretty dead tables decided to go through my hand history from the other night just to see how insane it all was. And this is how it went:

After the first 61 hands at the table I find myself with $197.50, a bit less than my starting stack. I have been pretty tight, only putting money in the pot 6 times in that span (3 times winning with flop c-bets, 1 turn fold with whiffed AKs after being c/r-ed by BB on 976 flop and 5 came on turn) and the following two semi-interesting hands:

Hand 45: I raise KK UTG, MP cold caller, BB calls. Flop AJ8 2-tone. BB checks, I bet, MP raises, BB calls, I fold. I figure at that point either the raiser or caller is sure to have an A. I then get sick as they check it down. MP shows QJo FTW. Crap.

Hand 46: (yes next hand!) CO openraises, I defend in BB w/J9s. Flop 954 2-tone. I c/r flop, he 3-bets, I call. Turn T, I check, he checks behind. River K, check/check and MHIG vs. missed 76 OESD.

Then at hand 62, the fireworks start. All hands not shown are folds or free looks in the BB combined with c/f flop.

Hand 62: I 3-bet an EP raiser with KK OTB. EP calls. Board J74-8-8 and he c/c's me down and MHIG.

Hand 67: I openraise AA in EP, MP calls (same cold-caller as hand 45, above), BB calls. Flop 866r. BB checks, I bet, MP calls, BB folds. Turn A. I bet, MP raises, I 3-bet, MP calls. River J, I bet, MP calls and MHIG for a nice $70.50 pot.

Hand 72: I limp behind two limpers in CO w/99, button raises, SB folds, all call. Flop AQJr. Amazingly, it is checked around. Turn 9 (LOL). Checked to me, I bet, only button calls. River A, I bet, button folds.

Hand 81: I 3-bet a HJ openraiser w/99 OTB, he calls. Flop A54 2-tone and my c-bet takes it down.

Hand 87: I raise AA UTG, MP calls, BB calls (this pattern sound familiar?). Flop Q52 2-tone. BB checks, I bet, MP calls, BB folds. Turn 6, I bet, MP folds.

(my stack is now $308.70, first time it has surpassed $300. 26 hands in.)

Hand 95: I raise AQo UTG, BB calls. Flop TT3, 2-tone. I bet both flop and turn and check behind the river on TT3-7-9 board and MHIG vs. AJ.

Hand 96: I defend my BB vs button openraise with T9o. I c/r a 655 flop, button only calls and folds to my turn bet. Yes, a bit frisky but he tended to be a folder.

Hand 105: I raise a CO openlimper w/KTs from SB, only CO calls. Flop 532 2-tone. I bet, CO calls. Turn T. I bet, CO calls. River K, I bet, CO calls and MHIG.

Hand 107: I openraise AJo in CO, BB calls. Flop QT9 single-suited and I have the A of trump. He check/calls. Turn K giving my the straight with flush redraw. He check/calls. River 3 completing my nut flush. He bets, I raise, he calls and MHIG

Hand 111: I 3-bet an EP raiser w/JJ in MP. BB calls, EP calls. Flop A53r. BB checks, I bet, MP folds, BB calls. Turn K, and BB folds to my bet.

(my stack is now $400.50, first time it has surpassed $400. 50 hands in.)

Hand 117: I openraise QTo in CO, SB calls, BB calls. Flop KQ2r. Checked to me, I bet, only SB calls. Turn A and SB folds to my bet.

Hand 123: I get a free look in my BB w/JTo vs two limpers. Flop T95r. I bet, I get one MP caller. Turn 7, I bet, MP calls. River 3, I bet, MP folds.

Hand 127: I limp behind an EP and MP limper w/K9s in CO (yes, this is a tad loose). I c/f a whiffed flop.

Hand 138: I raise EP limper w/QQ in HJ, only EP calls. Flop A53 2-tone and my c-bet takes it down

Hand 145: I am in the SB with JJ and the details of the hand will be subject of my NEXT blog post, but suffice it to say I showdown for a $123 pot.

(my stack is now $518.50, first time it has surpassed $500. 84 hands in.)

Hand 148: I raise EP limper w/AA in HJ, SB calls, BB calls, EP calls. Flop 743 2-tone. My c-bet is only called by BB. Turn 2 and my bet takes it down.

At that point my stack was at its peak of $538.50, a profit of $341 (almost 57 BB) in 87 hands.

So, I'll start the counting / stats for you:

I was dealt the following premium hands: 9 pairs (AA 3 times, KK and QQ once apiece, JJ twice, 99 twice), AQo and AJo. I also had some relatively weak-ish hands that hit good flops, held up, or were able to get opponents to fold.

I won 15 of the 16 pots that I entered (6 by showdown, 9 without a showdown) - the only pot I lost in that span where I put money in was the one small bet I lost with my loose K9s overlimp.

So, as you can plainly see, this streak was an example of the deck hitting me in the face combined with my opponents not hitting flops on my more marginal hands. The only hand I got really out-of-line with was the c/r with total air in my blind defense - all the other hands kind of played themselves. Interestingly enough, playing 16 hands out of 87 "only" puts me at a 18.4% VPIP even during this streak, so it wasn't that I was playing more hands than I should have - it is just that all of the playable ones were monsters!

Good Start to 2008

Well (as planned) I took the last part of 2007 off - not playing much at all, and at the $0.25/$0.50 level when I had the urge to get a few hands in. Also as planned I made a deposit at one of the Cake skins early in 2008 to see if I could continue my good fortunes there. I decided to use my existing Sportsbook account (where I had already run my free $20 into about $230) for the deposit and save my last Cake deposit for a brand new account where I will get rakeback after I clear this bonus in three months. There was only one hiccup in the plan (their daily deposit maximum is $1,000 instead of the $1,800 I intended to deposit to properly roll myself for $3/$6), but I got my $100 instant bonus and 3 months to clear the $1,000 deposit bonus. I also decided that I would still play $3/$6 as I could deposit the rest of my $1,800 if the need arose.

After a few days of so-so play at so-so tables (and resulting in about $80 in losses, while clearing about $40 in bonus) I had a night I won't forget for a long time. I was two-tabling $3/$6 and chatting online with Quadman at the time and he saw most of it unfold. I typically buy into a $3/$6 table for $200 (yes, 30+ BB is a lot for limit, but I don't like reloading), and that night was no different.

Well, every single hand I played at one of the tables, I couldn't seem to miss. My stack just kept growing. $300. $350. I finally remarked on it to Quadman when I hit $400 - the "double up" amount. I do not believe that I've ever had that much on the table at any level, at any site. I had no sooner said that than I hit a huge hand (perhaps the subject of a blog post in the next few days) that pushed my stack to over $500. I think my stack topped out at between $520 and $530 at that table. And it wasn't like this was a long session either - I hit this "peak" of over 50BB in profit at somewhere around 150 hands (LOL 35 BB/100 - sustainable???). I think at that point I had won 7 of 8 showdowns and had won 15 pots without a showdown. Crazy numbers.

At my other table I was up a mundane amount (comparatively!) and sitting on about $280. At one point I believe I had over $800 between the two tables, for $400 profit. I gave a little bit back in the next few blind revolutions, but signed off for the night with a profit of $379 in just over 300 hands played between the two tables.

Needless to say, this is by far my largest win (in $$$) in a day - looking back at a post from about 11 months ago lamenting that I've never had a +$100 day makes this win kind of humorous. But in all reality, I don't know if I've had any days since that post that are even half the size of this win (again, in $$$ - I've had slightly bigger days in terms of BB).

If this is what 2008 has in store for me, bring it on! Then again, who knows - maybe my doomswitch will be thrown and my next post will be "I dropped two buyins at $3/$6 - WTF?!?!"