This is gonna be a short post - I will be going on vacation from July 1-9 and will not be playing over that time. In fact, since I haven't played since clearing my Prima bonus last weekend, by the time I get back and into it again it will be over two weeks without playing a hand. Longest break since I started on this journey. At the very least I'll have a nice bonus / site to come back to - just today Paradise put out a 25% up to $100, 10x bonus with no expiry. Sweet.
And, just to get some math in, it occurs to me that I can use my PokerTracker database (which is now over 200K hands!) to answer a simple question - is there anyone out there losing at a rate that is greater than they could clear (say) a 10x bonus?
To take a concrete example, let's take the above Paradise bonus (10x, $100) and see what that works out to if you clear at $0.50/$1.00. The percentage of hands at that level which are raked according to my database is about 43.5%, so to get 1,000 raked hands, one would need to play about 2,300 dealt-hands. In order to lose money overall, they'd have to lose $100 in those 2,300 hands, which works out to -4.35 BB/100.
So, I did a filter in my database of all players at $0.50/$1.00 who have played at least 2,300 hands at that level. I have 46 players in this category. As it turns out, there is only ONE player out of those 46 that is losing at a rate greater than that. In fact, this person is losing at an amazing rate of -8.5 BB/100 over 3,000 hands. The next-worst player is losing at -3.46 BB/100, just to give you some perspective on how bad this guys' play is. No, neither of those players are me. And, no, I'm not going to tell you their screen names! :-)
The other 45 people are either winning or are losing slowly enough that the would come out of such a 10x bonus still cash-positive, which only reinforces my previous calculations about bonus chasing.
The corresponding numbers at $1/$2 are 1600 dealt-hands and -3.1 BB/100. I actually have 4 out of 42 players losing at that rate or greater over a 1,600+ hand stretch. I really don't know what to make of that as compared to the $0.50/$1.00 numbers, but just thought I'd throw it out there.
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
Sunday, June 25, 2006
$3/$6 at Casino Windsor
Well, poker1eh and I decided to go play a bit of live poker Saturday night - a bit of $3/$6 limit Hold'Em at Casino Windsor. Given that our other options were $1/$2 NL ($100 max buy-in), or $10/$20 NL ($500 min buy-in), I think we chose the right game.
My primary goal for the night was to pay attention and see how accurately I could put people on hands. Specifically (given how these games have gone before - typical low-limit limp-fests) I wanted to pay particular attention to what players chose to raise with preflop or take aggressive action on postflop. My secondary goal was to play "proper" poker - that is, to ensure that I'd play the hand exactly the same way as if I was playing $0.50/$1, ignoring the fact that I was playing for 6 times the stakes.
We arrived at a bit after 6:00 (to try and beat the Friday night crowd) and amazingly enough both got seated immediately at the same table. Much to poker1eh's delight (I'm sure), he got the seat two to my left. In the first button revolution it was readily apparent that this was a typical fishy table - I don't think we saw a preflop raise for at least 2 button revolutions, and had 5-6 people to the flop. We even had one guy who was somewhat unsure how that whole betting-thing worked, and seemed to call down with anything. Yum.
A few hands I remember from the evening:
Not too far into the evening: early position limper, folded to me in late position, I raise with AQ, knock out the blinds and get it heads up.
Flop Axx. Check/bet/call
Turn K. Check/bet/call (although he took a LONG time to call that bet)
River 6. Check/bet/call
He flips over A6. I guess I should be fortunate he didn't raise me on the river. Nice 3 outer.
44 in mid position, I limped behind another limper, the guy to my left raised, and knocked out everyone else except me (including the original limper) .
Flop J44.
Wow. I thought only online games were rigged. :-)
I check/called the flop.
Turn was a blank. I checked (going for the check-raise), and the guy checked behind. Bummer.
I bet the river blank and he called. He didn't show but claimed he had no part of the board and would have folded to a turn bet from me. Oh why couldn't he have had a big pair or AJ?
Early position limper, folded to me in the CO, I limp with JTs, and the button raises. He knocks out both blinds but keep me and the EP limper.
Flop AQTr
check/check/button bets, EP calls, I call. Pot is easily big enough to try to hit one of my 6 outs (4 Kings, 2 tens)
Turn K. And EP bets into me! Sweet! I raise, the button calls and EP calls.
River blank, checked to me, I bet, and both call.
EP had KT, button had AA. Nice pot - I figured for sure I would have to split it with one of them. I am truly shocked that both of them call my river bet.
It was folded around to me in the CO, and I raised with AQo. Poker1eh took a long time to think about it in the SB and finally called, as did the BB.
Flop 3 low rags.
It was checked to me, I bet, poker1eh called, and we lost the BB.
Turn another low rag. poker1eh checked, and I checked behind.
River was yet another rag, poker1eh bet out and I called. He showed down A-worse kicker and I win.
This was definitely a "read" play - when he took so long to call preflop, I knew it wasn't a pair or suited connectors or anything, more than likely two high cards. And by the river I was ahead (or tied) with every high card hand except AK, and that one he would have three-bet me with preflop. Thus the call. Of course, if I was that sure of my read, I should have raised him. :-)
An MP raiser, and I 3-bet in the SB with AK. We lose everyone else, and he just calls.
Flop 3 low rags. I bet, he calls
Turn another rag. I bet, he calls
River another rag, I check, he bets, I call and get shown KK.
The only reason I fired again on the turn is that I had seen this guy raise in EP with A9 a button revolution previously. But in general he was showing down pretty good hands, so even if I did fire at the turn, at the very least I could have (reasonably safely) folded to the river bet.
Few limpers, I get a free look in the BB with 65o.
Flop 955. I bet out and only an EP caller sticks around.
Turn A. I bet out, and get called
River 5. (!!!!!!). I bet out, get raised, I 3-bet, and he only calls me. Flips up Ax and I take down a nice one.
Yes, if you're counting, that's two quads for me tonight. As a side note, the very next hand after this one, the guy I just beat flopped a flush and lost to turned quad queens. Yes, one guy lost to quads on two consecutive hands. Like I said, I thought only online games were fixed.....
It was a limpfest, and I limped in the CO with Kx suited.
Flop QQx with two of my suit. Bet from EP, I call, and the button calls.
Turn 8, completing my flush. EP bets, I raise, we lose the button, and EP 3-bets. I actually said "this is gonna get expensive" at this point, to which poker1eh replied "looks like it already is" I just call the 3-bet.
River was a blank, call his river bet and get shown Q8. Ouchy.
How did I do as far as my goals? As far as the first goal (pay attention, and putting people on hands), I give myself an B+. I was shocked how easy it was to put some people on hands. The only reason I don't get a better grade is that by the end of the night (about 6 and a half hours!) my attention had started to decrease. As far as playing "proper" poker, I think I'll give myself an A-. Preflop I think I played very well given the loose conditions (e.g. pocket pairs and suited aces playable from any position for a limp) and postflop I think I only got out of line twice (the AK hand above, and a flush+OESD that I check/raised on the turn heads up). I missed one or two equity value raises with a flush draw with 2+ opponents which is something that I need to work on in my online game as well, so I can't blame the stakes for that one. I'm actually very happy with the way I played my draws - it seemed none of them came in, but that didn't make them any less correct to play.
At the end of the night I was up $11. Figure even with the shuffle machine we saw (at most) 35 hands an hour, or somewhere around 225 hands the whole night for a winrate of 0.8 BB/100.
But, you start doing the math and see how expensive it is to play at a casino and how much better this win would have been if I had just played the same hands at $3/$6 online:
1) The dealer toke. By rough estimate, I probably won about 15 pots over the evening, each of which had a dealer toke of $1. Thats $15 that would have remained in my stack if I was online.
2) The increased rake. The casino rake is double what the online rake is: 10%, although it caps at $5. Again, figure I won 15 pots over the evening and each one was about 5 BB ($30), and thus raked $3. So I paid $45 in rake over the evening, of which I'd have only paid $22.50 in rake online. That would be another $22.50 in my stack.
So, all in all, if the same events would have transpired online, I'd estimate my I would have ended the night up almost $50 instead of the $11 I actually won. Like I said, expensive!
Just for fun, let's figure out how much the toke and rake are in terms of BB/100. If you use my average win rate online to judge how many pots I'll typically win, it'll be about 8.5%, so I'll pay $8.50/100 hands, or 1.4 BB/100 just in toke. Likewise, if those 8.5 pots are raked at an average of $3, I will pay $25.50 in rake, or $12.25 more per 100 hands than online. That is about 2 BB/100 in increased rake.
So, the conclusion is that it actually costs you about 3.4 BB/100 in increased costs to play $3/$6 at this casino! Think about it - that is truly amazing. If you are crushing the low limit games online to the tune of 3 BB/100 (which I am not), you would actually be a 0.4 BB/100 loser playing the same game at the casino. I knew that casino play was expensive, but I really had no idea how expensive. That being said, I think the competition at the casino is far weaker than even an awesome Party table, but 3.4 BB/100 is a hell of a disadvantage to try to overcome.
But, looked at another way, it is actually a pretty cheap way to spend an evening. For a more typical 5 hour playing session, 3.4 BB/100 works out to about $35. That's only $7/hr which is a remarkably cheap way to spend a Saturday evening. In fact, that's a (much) lower hourly rate than I spent on golf earlier that day, plus I actually have a chance to do something I like and have a chance to come home with more money than I started with (unlike golf!).
My primary goal for the night was to pay attention and see how accurately I could put people on hands. Specifically (given how these games have gone before - typical low-limit limp-fests) I wanted to pay particular attention to what players chose to raise with preflop or take aggressive action on postflop. My secondary goal was to play "proper" poker - that is, to ensure that I'd play the hand exactly the same way as if I was playing $0.50/$1, ignoring the fact that I was playing for 6 times the stakes.
We arrived at a bit after 6:00 (to try and beat the Friday night crowd) and amazingly enough both got seated immediately at the same table. Much to poker1eh's delight (I'm sure), he got the seat two to my left. In the first button revolution it was readily apparent that this was a typical fishy table - I don't think we saw a preflop raise for at least 2 button revolutions, and had 5-6 people to the flop. We even had one guy who was somewhat unsure how that whole betting-thing worked, and seemed to call down with anything. Yum.
A few hands I remember from the evening:
Not too far into the evening: early position limper, folded to me in late position, I raise with AQ, knock out the blinds and get it heads up.
Flop Axx. Check/bet/call
Turn K. Check/bet/call (although he took a LONG time to call that bet)
River 6. Check/bet/call
He flips over A6. I guess I should be fortunate he didn't raise me on the river. Nice 3 outer.
44 in mid position, I limped behind another limper, the guy to my left raised, and knocked out everyone else except me (including the original limper) .
Flop J44.
Wow. I thought only online games were rigged. :-)
I check/called the flop.
Turn was a blank. I checked (going for the check-raise), and the guy checked behind. Bummer.
I bet the river blank and he called. He didn't show but claimed he had no part of the board and would have folded to a turn bet from me. Oh why couldn't he have had a big pair or AJ?
Early position limper, folded to me in the CO, I limp with JTs, and the button raises. He knocks out both blinds but keep me and the EP limper.
Flop AQTr
check/check/button bets, EP calls, I call. Pot is easily big enough to try to hit one of my 6 outs (4 Kings, 2 tens)
Turn K. And EP bets into me! Sweet! I raise, the button calls and EP calls.
River blank, checked to me, I bet, and both call.
EP had KT, button had AA. Nice pot - I figured for sure I would have to split it with one of them. I am truly shocked that both of them call my river bet.
It was folded around to me in the CO, and I raised with AQo. Poker1eh took a long time to think about it in the SB and finally called, as did the BB.
Flop 3 low rags.
It was checked to me, I bet, poker1eh called, and we lost the BB.
Turn another low rag. poker1eh checked, and I checked behind.
River was yet another rag, poker1eh bet out and I called. He showed down A-worse kicker and I win.
This was definitely a "read" play - when he took so long to call preflop, I knew it wasn't a pair or suited connectors or anything, more than likely two high cards. And by the river I was ahead (or tied) with every high card hand except AK, and that one he would have three-bet me with preflop. Thus the call. Of course, if I was that sure of my read, I should have raised him. :-)
An MP raiser, and I 3-bet in the SB with AK. We lose everyone else, and he just calls.
Flop 3 low rags. I bet, he calls
Turn another rag. I bet, he calls
River another rag, I check, he bets, I call and get shown KK.
The only reason I fired again on the turn is that I had seen this guy raise in EP with A9 a button revolution previously. But in general he was showing down pretty good hands, so even if I did fire at the turn, at the very least I could have (reasonably safely) folded to the river bet.
Few limpers, I get a free look in the BB with 65o.
Flop 955. I bet out and only an EP caller sticks around.
Turn A. I bet out, and get called
River 5. (!!!!!!). I bet out, get raised, I 3-bet, and he only calls me. Flips up Ax and I take down a nice one.
Yes, if you're counting, that's two quads for me tonight. As a side note, the very next hand after this one, the guy I just beat flopped a flush and lost to turned quad queens. Yes, one guy lost to quads on two consecutive hands. Like I said, I thought only online games were fixed.....
It was a limpfest, and I limped in the CO with Kx suited.
Flop QQx with two of my suit. Bet from EP, I call, and the button calls.
Turn 8, completing my flush. EP bets, I raise, we lose the button, and EP 3-bets. I actually said "this is gonna get expensive" at this point, to which poker1eh replied "looks like it already is" I just call the 3-bet.
River was a blank, call his river bet and get shown Q8. Ouchy.
How did I do as far as my goals? As far as the first goal (pay attention, and putting people on hands), I give myself an B+. I was shocked how easy it was to put some people on hands. The only reason I don't get a better grade is that by the end of the night (about 6 and a half hours!) my attention had started to decrease. As far as playing "proper" poker, I think I'll give myself an A-. Preflop I think I played very well given the loose conditions (e.g. pocket pairs and suited aces playable from any position for a limp) and postflop I think I only got out of line twice (the AK hand above, and a flush+OESD that I check/raised on the turn heads up). I missed one or two equity value raises with a flush draw with 2+ opponents which is something that I need to work on in my online game as well, so I can't blame the stakes for that one. I'm actually very happy with the way I played my draws - it seemed none of them came in, but that didn't make them any less correct to play.
At the end of the night I was up $11. Figure even with the shuffle machine we saw (at most) 35 hands an hour, or somewhere around 225 hands the whole night for a winrate of 0.8 BB/100.
But, you start doing the math and see how expensive it is to play at a casino and how much better this win would have been if I had just played the same hands at $3/$6 online:
1) The dealer toke. By rough estimate, I probably won about 15 pots over the evening, each of which had a dealer toke of $1. Thats $15 that would have remained in my stack if I was online.
2) The increased rake. The casino rake is double what the online rake is: 10%, although it caps at $5. Again, figure I won 15 pots over the evening and each one was about 5 BB ($30), and thus raked $3. So I paid $45 in rake over the evening, of which I'd have only paid $22.50 in rake online. That would be another $22.50 in my stack.
So, all in all, if the same events would have transpired online, I'd estimate my I would have ended the night up almost $50 instead of the $11 I actually won. Like I said, expensive!
Just for fun, let's figure out how much the toke and rake are in terms of BB/100. If you use my average win rate online to judge how many pots I'll typically win, it'll be about 8.5%, so I'll pay $8.50/100 hands, or 1.4 BB/100 just in toke. Likewise, if those 8.5 pots are raked at an average of $3, I will pay $25.50 in rake, or $12.25 more per 100 hands than online. That is about 2 BB/100 in increased rake.
So, the conclusion is that it actually costs you about 3.4 BB/100 in increased costs to play $3/$6 at this casino! Think about it - that is truly amazing. If you are crushing the low limit games online to the tune of 3 BB/100 (which I am not), you would actually be a 0.4 BB/100 loser playing the same game at the casino. I knew that casino play was expensive, but I really had no idea how expensive. That being said, I think the competition at the casino is far weaker than even an awesome Party table, but 3.4 BB/100 is a hell of a disadvantage to try to overcome.
But, looked at another way, it is actually a pretty cheap way to spend an evening. For a more typical 5 hour playing session, 3.4 BB/100 works out to about $35. That's only $7/hr which is a remarkably cheap way to spend a Saturday evening. In fact, that's a (much) lower hourly rate than I spent on golf earlier that day, plus I actually have a chance to do something I like and have a chance to come home with more money than I started with (unlike golf!).
Sunday, June 11, 2006
Ah Prima, you !@#!% b1tch......
Well, it has been a while since my last blog post, and I can't really say that poker has treated me that well. Or, rather, I should say Prima hasn't treated me too well. Here is my last month of play at Prima:
The upswing at the right was last night, where they evidently let some fish loose on the Prima network - instead of the usual 16-20% table VPIP and $4 average pots, we had 40-55% VPIP and $7-11 average pots. I have never seen a night like it on Prima yet, but hope it continues - I have some ground to make up!
I have some bizarre numbers over the 2,000 hands I've played there - my worst hands are
Oh, and I made a bankroll update and will attach my latest "overall" graph:
I am within one night of clearing Bet365 and was going to head over to PokerRoom to get away from Prima, but if the fish are going to stay at there I may look up a Wild Jack bonus or some such.
The upswing at the right was last night, where they evidently let some fish loose on the Prima network - instead of the usual 16-20% table VPIP and $4 average pots, we had 40-55% VPIP and $7-11 average pots. I have never seen a night like it on Prima yet, but hope it continues - I have some ground to make up!
I have some bizarre numbers over the 2,000 hands I've played there - my worst hands are
- AA (-2.25 BB/hand) - won 3 out of 8, and all three of those were either blind steals or over on the flop.
- AKo (-1.39 BB/hand) - won 4 out of 14, and two of those were blind steals.
- 99 (-1.19 BB/hand) - won 2 out of 4, with one blind steal.
- 88 (-1.12 BB/hand) - won 1 out of 13. At least it was a decent pot and not a blind steal
- AQo (-0.91 BB/hand) - won 5 out of 19 with two of them blind steals.
Oh, and I made a bankroll update and will attach my latest "overall" graph:
I am within one night of clearing Bet365 and was going to head over to PokerRoom to get away from Prima, but if the fish are going to stay at there I may look up a Wild Jack bonus or some such.
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
Running bad
Well, after my run-up of 5+ BB/100 for 5000 hands, Karma decided to slap me upside the face:
That's a 140 BB downswing, and -3.22 BB/100 over my last two bonuses (about 3,100 hands). I've reviewed some hands, and in some cases I may have not been aggressive as I could, but in a lot of cases this is just expensive second-best hands and draws not coming in. Probably the exact opposite of my upswing, where every draw seemed to come in.
But the most amazing thing of all? I'm actually up about $30 in real-money during this downswing due to playing under a bonus for that time. How crazy is that?
That being said, I'm burned out enough by this downswing that I'm going to take a few days off and do a combination of read, review my game, and just plain chill. I have a Paradise Bonus I need to clear, but no hurry on it, and no "logical" next bonus to clear.
On a positive note, I made my first concrete purchase funded by poker - a new digital camera! All hail poker on the Internet!
That's a 140 BB downswing, and -3.22 BB/100 over my last two bonuses (about 3,100 hands). I've reviewed some hands, and in some cases I may have not been aggressive as I could, but in a lot of cases this is just expensive second-best hands and draws not coming in. Probably the exact opposite of my upswing, where every draw seemed to come in.
But the most amazing thing of all? I'm actually up about $30 in real-money during this downswing due to playing under a bonus for that time. How crazy is that?
That being said, I'm burned out enough by this downswing that I'm going to take a few days off and do a combination of read, review my game, and just plain chill. I have a Paradise Bonus I need to clear, but no hurry on it, and no "logical" next bonus to clear.
On a positive note, I made my first concrete purchase funded by poker - a new digital camera! All hail poker on the Internet!
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
$10,500 freeroll
As mentioned in my last blog post, another MTT was on my horizon - this time a $10,500 freeroll on Mother's Day (of all days). As it turns out, only 75 people decided to battle for all that money! It was therefore the equivalent (from a prize money perspective) as a $140 buy-in MTT. Amazing. Even more amazing is that the top 30 pay, starting with $52.50 for 30th place and moving up to the top prize of $1,995.
Initial stacks are 2,000 and the blinds start at 10/20, so at least we start with a decent amount of chips. I expect play to be VERY tight with that much money and that short a field.
My first key hand comes up only 11 minutes in, still in the first blind level:
Blinds: $10.00/$20.00, 9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $2000.00
UTG+1: $1970.00
MP1: $2325.00
Hero: $1885.00
MP3: $2030.00
CO: $2060.00
Button: $1840.00
SB: $1910.00
BB: $1950.00
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with J♥ J♦
3 folds, Hero raises to $75, MP3 raises to $300, 4 folds, Hero calls.
Flop: 9♦ 2♣ 7♥ ($630, 2 players)
Hero bets $255, MP3 raises to $510, Hero calls.
Turn: 4♦ ($1650, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $580, Hero folds.
Ouch. Half of my stack gone on that hand. Guy claims he had AA, and I believe him. I would have (and probably should have) folded to the flop raise, but my thought was that it was a min-raise and was worth calling. Fuzzy thinking - I'm pretty sure I'm playing to 2 outs, and the stacks aren't big enough to give me the implied odds I need to try to hit the J: I know I stack him if I hit my J, but to call $255 with 22-1 odds he'd have to have at least 5K left in front of him to make it worth my while, which he obviously didn't. Bad play, and I lost $255 more than I needed to here.
I get a very small amount back a few minutes later with:
Blinds: $10.00/$20.00, 9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1840.00
UTG+1: $1910.00
MP1: $1940.00
MP2: $1970.00
MP3: $1970.00
CO: $2295.00
Hero: $1045.00
SB: $2900.00
BB: $2100.00
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 10♥ 10♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises to $85, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: 8♠ 8♦ 2♥ ($200, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $125, UTG+1 folds.
and then give it all back almost immediately with:
Blinds: $15.00/$30.00, 9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1820.00
UTG+1: $1985.00
MP1: $1925.00
MP2: $1910.00
MP3: $2205.00
Hero: $1085.00
Button: $2855.00
SB: $2185.00
BB: $1985.00
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with 2♥ 2♣
5 folds, Hero raises to $65, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.
Flop: A♣ K♣ 6♦ ($160, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $85, SB calls.
Turn: 3♣ ($330, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.
River: Q♦ ($330, 2 players)
SB bets $150, Hero folds.
I'm now under 1,000, which at this point is under 30 BB. I'm getting shortstacked already, and we're only 20 minutes in! I start tightening way up, and don't play much of anything until the blinds are 50/100 and I'm sitting on 785 chips. All-in or fold from here on out, methinks.
Stack sizes:
UTG: $4460.00
UTG+1: $1852.50
UTG+2: $2835.00
MP1: $3430.00
MP2: $2530.00
MP3: $5030.00
Hero: $870.00
Button: $3185.00
SB: $1035.00
BB: $2030.00
Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 4♥ 4♦
6 folds, Hero raises all-in $870, Button calls, 2 folds.
Button shows A♦ Q♦
Flop: 10♥ 10♠ 6♣ ($2040, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2040)
Turn: 7♠ ($2040, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2040)
River: 3♦ ($2040, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2040)
Results: Final pot: $2040
Whew. I win the coin flip and I go over 2,000 chips for the first time in the tournament - over 80 minutes in! I still only have 10 BB, so more all-in or fold.....
Blinds: $150.00/$300.00, 8 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $7065.00
UTG+1: $5285.00
MP1: $4710.00
MP2: $2357.50
CO: $9582.50
Button: $3030.00
SB: $2660.00
Hero: $1412.50
Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with 9♣ 9♠
2 folds, MP1 raises to $900, 4 folds, Hero raises all-in $1412.5, MP1 calls.
MP1 shows A♣ 10♦
Flop: K♠ 9♥ 5♥ ($3275, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2975, Sidepot 1: $300)
Turn: J♣ ($3275, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2975, Sidepot 1: $300)
River: 8♦ ($3275, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2975, Sidepot 1: $300)
Results: Final pot: $3275
YES! For what it is worth, we still haven't hit the money, but are quite close and my stack is now big enough to "coast" to the money should I choose to. But I don't.
The blinds go up to 200/400. Still less than 10 BB, so more all-in or fold.....
I think we get down to 20 people somewhere around here.
Time for the ever-present math portion of my posts:
Assuming both blinds fold, it would have been 2670 to win 6840, so I only need to win 39% of the time to make a profitable call here. He says he had AQo. PokerStove tells me I have 41% equity here against this exact hand, so even if he flips his hand over, I have a marginal call. Against his entire range of hands he COULD have, I think I messed this one up big-time. Against (for example) any pair, any two broadway, I am 47.8%. I needed to make that call, even if I went busto doing it. Plus, I only have 4 more hands until I have to post a BB which will resign me to going all in with almost any two cards. Am I likely to get a better hand or situation than KJs in the next 4 hands? Likely not. I suck. :-)
Amazingly enough, though, just two hands later I pick up KJo in MP3 and push. The SB re-raises to get the BB out of the way and flips over 55. Coin flip. The board comes A998Q and I go out in 13th place, winning $210. Not bad for just under 3 hours worth of work, though.
My buddy poker1eh actually had the chip lead with about 16 people to go and wound up taking 6th for $525, busting out on TT vs. 99 when a 9 hit the board. My brother took 32nd place (just out of the money) when he had AK vs. QQ. He improved with an A, but so did the QQ with another Q.
I can't wait until the next one - I could play short field 10K freerolls every day!
In terms of analyzing my (possible) mistakes made:
My early JJ hand - I don't know if I'm supposed to lose more there or less there. JJ vs. AA is going to be painful when both remain overpairs. Maybe if I'm a better NL player I actually fold that one to the re-raise preflop: he re-raised about 1/7 of my stack - is it worth it to continue? Especially if I don't spike a J?
My min-raise with 44 late in the tourney. Donkey. Either fold it or go all in with less than 10 BB.
Initial stacks are 2,000 and the blinds start at 10/20, so at least we start with a decent amount of chips. I expect play to be VERY tight with that much money and that short a field.
My first key hand comes up only 11 minutes in, still in the first blind level:
Blinds: $10.00/$20.00, 9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $2000.00
UTG+1: $1970.00
MP1: $2325.00
Hero: $1885.00
MP3: $2030.00
CO: $2060.00
Button: $1840.00
SB: $1910.00
BB: $1950.00
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with J♥ J♦
3 folds, Hero raises to $75, MP3 raises to $300, 4 folds, Hero calls.
Flop: 9♦ 2♣ 7♥ ($630, 2 players)
Hero bets $255, MP3 raises to $510, Hero calls.
Turn: 4♦ ($1650, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $580, Hero folds.
Ouch. Half of my stack gone on that hand. Guy claims he had AA, and I believe him. I would have (and probably should have) folded to the flop raise, but my thought was that it was a min-raise and was worth calling. Fuzzy thinking - I'm pretty sure I'm playing to 2 outs, and the stacks aren't big enough to give me the implied odds I need to try to hit the J: I know I stack him if I hit my J, but to call $255 with 22-1 odds he'd have to have at least 5K left in front of him to make it worth my while, which he obviously didn't. Bad play, and I lost $255 more than I needed to here.
I get a very small amount back a few minutes later with:
Blinds: $10.00/$20.00, 9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1840.00
UTG+1: $1910.00
MP1: $1940.00
MP2: $1970.00
MP3: $1970.00
CO: $2295.00
Hero: $1045.00
SB: $2900.00
BB: $2100.00
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 10♥ 10♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises to $85, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: 8♠ 8♦ 2♥ ($200, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $125, UTG+1 folds.
and then give it all back almost immediately with:
Blinds: $15.00/$30.00, 9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1820.00
UTG+1: $1985.00
MP1: $1925.00
MP2: $1910.00
MP3: $2205.00
Hero: $1085.00
Button: $2855.00
SB: $2185.00
BB: $1985.00
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with 2♥ 2♣
5 folds, Hero raises to $65, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.
Flop: A♣ K♣ 6♦ ($160, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $85, SB calls.
Turn: 3♣ ($330, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.
River: Q♦ ($330, 2 players)
SB bets $150, Hero folds.
I'm now under 1,000, which at this point is under 30 BB. I'm getting shortstacked already, and we're only 20 minutes in! I start tightening way up, and don't play much of anything until the blinds are 50/100 and I'm sitting on 785 chips. All-in or fold from here on out, methinks.
- I push with AJo unopened, no caller. Up to 935.
- I take a round of blinds, back down to 785.
- I push with JJ in EP2, no caller. Up to 935.
- I take the BB and someone with only 110 pushes, and I call with JTo for the additional 10. I win against A9o when I spike a T on the river. Up to 1020.
- I push with 66 in MP1, no caller. Up to 1245.
- I take a round of blinds, back down to 1020.
- I push with KQo on the button, no caller. Back up to 1245.
- I take a round of blinds, back down to 1020.
- I push with KK in MP2, no caller. Up to 1245.
- I take two sets of blinds and get semi-involved with a free look in my BB and lose a bit. Down to 870.
Somewhere around here I officially become "last place guy" and am 55th of of 55 remaining.
Blinds go up to 100/200. First hand of the new blinds:
Stack sizes:
UTG: $4460.00
UTG+1: $1852.50
UTG+2: $2835.00
MP1: $3430.00
MP2: $2530.00
MP3: $5030.00
Hero: $870.00
Button: $3185.00
SB: $1035.00
BB: $2030.00
Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 4♥ 4♦
6 folds, Hero raises all-in $870, Button calls, 2 folds.
Button shows A♦ Q♦
Flop: 10♥ 10♠ 6♣ ($2040, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2040)
Turn: 7♠ ($2040, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2040)
River: 3♦ ($2040, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2040)
Results: Final pot: $2040
Whew. I win the coin flip and I go over 2,000 chips for the first time in the tournament - over 80 minutes in! I still only have 10 BB, so more all-in or fold.....
- Very next hand I pick up AQo in MP2, push, no caller. Up to 2340.
- I get a free look in a BvB and bet the flop when checked to. Up to 2440.
- I go card dead and fold a few set of blinds.
- I push ATo in MP3, no caller. Up to 2290.
- A stack shorter than a BB goes all-in while I'm in the BB with 96o. I'm against 88, but hit a 9 on the river. Up to 2467.
- I win a BvB. Up to 2917.
- I min-raise 44 in MP3 (WHAT?!?! I don't have enough chips to pull this off!!!!), the button goes all-in and has me covered. I fold. Down to 2162. This is horrible play by me, but may have saved my bacon.
- I lose a BvB, down to 1712.
Blinds: $150.00/$300.00, 8 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $7065.00
UTG+1: $5285.00
MP1: $4710.00
MP2: $2357.50
CO: $9582.50
Button: $3030.00
SB: $2660.00
Hero: $1412.50
Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with 9♣ 9♠
2 folds, MP1 raises to $900, 4 folds, Hero raises all-in $1412.5, MP1 calls.
MP1 shows A♣ 10♦
Flop: K♠ 9♥ 5♥ ($3275, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2975, Sidepot 1: $300)
Turn: J♣ ($3275, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2975, Sidepot 1: $300)
River: 8♦ ($3275, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2975, Sidepot 1: $300)
Results: Final pot: $3275
YES! For what it is worth, we still haven't hit the money, but are quite close and my stack is now big enough to "coast" to the money should I choose to. But I don't.
The blinds go up to 200/400. Still less than 10 BB, so more all-in or fold.....
- I push ATo in the cutoff, no callers. Up to 3975.
- I take a round of blinds.
- I push KK from the button, no callers. Up to 4575.
- Very next hand, I raise to 955 with AJs from the cutoff, no callers. Up to 5175.
- I win a button vs BB with complete air. Up to 5730.
The blinds go up to 300/600. I think we hit the money bubble somewhere around here.
- I take a round of blinds.
- I push AKo from the cutoff, no callers. Up to 6030.
- I push KK UTG, no callers. Up to 6930
I am in the top 10 in chip position. Amazing - how many times in an MTT structure have I pulled this trick off? Chip and a chair.....
Blinds go up to 400/800.
I think we get down to 20 people somewhere around here.
- I take a bunch of blinds and am down to 4270.
- I push ATs on the button, no callers. Up to 5470.
- I take the BB at 400/800, then the SB at 500/1000, then another round of blinds at 500/1000 with no cards at all. Not even steal-worthy cards. Down to 2670, under 3 BB, and insanely desperate.
Time for the ever-present math portion of my posts:
Assuming both blinds fold, it would have been 2670 to win 6840, so I only need to win 39% of the time to make a profitable call here. He says he had AQo. PokerStove tells me I have 41% equity here against this exact hand, so even if he flips his hand over, I have a marginal call. Against his entire range of hands he COULD have, I think I messed this one up big-time. Against (for example) any pair, any two broadway, I am 47.8%. I needed to make that call, even if I went busto doing it. Plus, I only have 4 more hands until I have to post a BB which will resign me to going all in with almost any two cards. Am I likely to get a better hand or situation than KJs in the next 4 hands? Likely not. I suck. :-)
Amazingly enough, though, just two hands later I pick up KJo in MP3 and push. The SB re-raises to get the BB out of the way and flips over 55. Coin flip. The board comes A998Q and I go out in 13th place, winning $210. Not bad for just under 3 hours worth of work, though.
My buddy poker1eh actually had the chip lead with about 16 people to go and wound up taking 6th for $525, busting out on TT vs. 99 when a 9 hit the board. My brother took 32nd place (just out of the money) when he had AK vs. QQ. He improved with an A, but so did the QQ with another Q.
I can't wait until the next one - I could play short field 10K freerolls every day!
In terms of analyzing my (possible) mistakes made:
My early JJ hand - I don't know if I'm supposed to lose more there or less there. JJ vs. AA is going to be painful when both remain overpairs. Maybe if I'm a better NL player I actually fold that one to the re-raise preflop: he re-raised about 1/7 of my stack - is it worth it to continue? Especially if I don't spike a J?
My min-raise with 44 late in the tourney. Donkey. Either fold it or go all in with less than 10 BB.
My KK pushes that only picked up the blinds:
- KK in MP2 with 7 BB
- KK OTB with 9 BB
- KK UTG with 10 BB
One can argue I could have min-raised any of them (especially the UTG one) and then hoped someone tried coming over the top so I could at least pick up a little extra $. But I really don't mind the pushes - I figure eventually someone is eventually going to get sick of me pushing and call, and I don't really mind not seeing flops and letting the random Ax I let in for cheap hitting their A. Stealing is worth 1.5 BB, and is a significant chunk of change at that point.
As far as tightness, I folded all the below hands preflop. Unless otherwise noted, all are unopened to me, and are in time order in the tourney. Some of these are obvious mistakes, but nowhere near all of them. They are also lacking context (BB willingness to defend, where the big/short stacks are, how close to the bubble we are, etc.) which makes them hard to look at in list form this way, but I figure I'll lay them all out anyways, and I can look up the specific situation if any of my readers wish to debate my play. :-)
- Folded KJo in EP2 with 40 BB.
- Folded Q9o on the button with 35 BB.
- Folded 99 in EP2 with 30 BB.
- Folded 66 UTG with 30 BB.
- Folded 88 UTG with 30 BB.
- Folded QJs in MP1 with 18 BB
- Folded A9o in CO with 9 BB.
- Folded 66 in MP1 with 8 BB
- Folded 88 UTG with 12 BB.
- Folded A9o in CO with 6 BB
- Folded 99 OTB to a 3 BB raise by MP3 who had me covered when I only had 10 BB
- Folded ATo in MP2 with 6 BB
- Folded A8o OTB with 8 BB
- Folded KTs in MP1 with 13 BB
- Folded KJo in EP3 with 10 BB
- Folded A4o OTB with 11 BB
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