A Year In Useless Stats, Part III - Best / Worst Days and Weeks

Now, as promised, the best/worst days and weeks along with a couple other random stats that don't lend themselves well to fit any other place.

It is very easy to focus on the $6K+ that I earned this year but for the purposes of the below statistics the numbers to keep in mind are my earns from actual play, rather than any of the bonuses and freerolls. To be specific, that means $686 made through actual poker play (a number that would have been $1002 if I had never played a single hand of $2/$4, but that's another story). Also of note was that in terms of BB, my yearly earn was just under 700 BB.

The first set of statistics will be measured in BB:

Most BB won, day:
4/8/2006: 70.6 BB
6/17/2006: 63.8 BB
5/5/2006: 53.1 BB

I have had 5 other days in excess of +40 BB, but I have had NONE of them since July 2006! For whatever reason, I simply don't seem to get on big daily rushes anymore. I don't know whether that is because I don't play enough hands in a typical day or some other reason. Kinda frustrating, though.

Most BB lost, day:
7/21/2006: -53.8 BB
10/31/2006: -47.7 BB (Halloween Curse)
6/21/2006: -47.4 BB

I have had only 2 other days in excess of -40 BB, so it is at least nice to know that not only don't I have big positive rushes, I don't go on very large negative plunges either.

Most BB won, week:
5/1/2006 - 5/7/2006: 94.7 BB
9/4/2006 - 9/10/2006: 78.4 BB
12/18/2006 - 12/24/2006: 78.0 BB

I have had 8 other weeks in excess of +40 BB as well.

Most BB lost, week:
3/27/2006 - 4/2/2006: -84.0 BB
5/15/2006 - 5/21/2006: -55.8 BB
1/22/2007 - 1/28/2007: -38.9 BB

I have had no other week worse than -35 BB, which tells a very nice story when combined with the previous statistic: 11 weeks of +40 BB or more, and only 3 weeks of -35 BB or worse. Gotta love that - a week is a pretty short amount of time to have expected my play to have "evened out" to this level.

Next, all the same statistics but measured in dollars. This will (obviously) show a great bias towards my end-of-year play where I am playing for stakes more than 10 times (!!!) the level that I started.

Most $$ won, day:
2/3/2007: $92.00
6/17/2006: $81.00
7/22/2006: $74.25

I have had 11 other days in excess of $50. I am amazed that I haven't had bigger days than the June and July days, as I am playing a level or two higher than I was then. This is a reflection of the "I don't seem to go on rushes since last July" statistic from above. I would certainly expect that if I continue to play $2/$4 for any appreciable amount of time these records will topple, as even a "mere" 25 BB day will exceed than any of the days listed above.

Most $$ lost, day:
10/31/2006: -$107.35 (Halloween Curse)
12/15/2006: -$103.25
1/24/2007: -$85.00

I have also had 11 other days in excess of -$50. Somewhat concerning / interesting that I've had a -$100 day (twice, even!) but never a +$100 day. Hmmmmmm.

Most $$ won, week:
1/29/2007 - 2/4/2007: $177.00
12/18/2006 - 12/24/2006: $146.75 (Merry Christmas!)
10/23/2006 - 10/29/2006: $98.85

I have had 10 other weeks in excess of $50. Interstingly enough, if you take my $6K earn for the year (including all sources) it works out to about $115/week. So if I want to match my $6K for next year, I will need to have some of these "best weeks" almost every week, since many of these sources for the $6K have dried up in the interim.

Most $$ lost, week:
1/22/2007 - 1/28/2007: -$166.75
12/11/2006 - 12/17/2006: -$157.25
3/27/2006 - 4/2/2006: -$85.87

I have had 2 other weeks in excess of -$50, so again I see a nice story of my game when grouped into week long spans: 13 weeks of +$50 or more, but only 5 weeks corresponding to the same number but in the negative column. Interestingly enough, the top two worst weeks above were immediately followed by the two best weeks above. Maybe going on a downswing motivates me to play better to get out of that hole. Or maybe the doomswitch just gets turned off at that point....

The magnitude of these dollar numbers are sobering when compared to my yearly earn - my best/worst days are in excess of 15% of my yearly earn and my best/worst weeks are up to 25% of that amount. An amazing amount of variance to be sure. Having the cushion of the bankroll allows me to push my (apparent) edge without the variance threatening to make me go busto.

Now, for the stat that doesn't seem to fit any other place - most hands played. For reference, I played just short of 51,000 hands for the year - so about 1,000 hands per week on average.

Most hands played, day:
12/1/2006: 1079
2/19/2006: 883
9/10/2006: 737

Most hands played, week:
2/13/2006 - 2/19/2006: 2158
12/18/2006 - 12/24/2006: 1808
5/15/2006 - 5/21/2006: 1745

I am actually surprised I don't have any weeks where I have 3-4 times the average number of hands. Having my "peak" day be only double the average implies a very flat distribution:


Other than playing a bit more at the start and not playing that much in the summer months, this is (reasonably) constant.

The last post "yearly" post I have actual plans for is a "value of each hand" post, both for full ring and 6-max. After that, I'd better get back to playing instead of writing about playing......

A Year In Useless Stats, Part II - Suckouts

OK, I lied. I had planned on the next post being about best days / weeks but it turns out all the stats I compiled for that are on another computer, so I present to you instead some suckouts until I can get around to the other posts.

This is somewhat a difficult post to write, as there is no way to go into PokerTracker and query it to display the largest suckouts. I am therefore reliant on my memory to try to remember some of the biggest. It was very, very easy for me to remember the biggest suckout I laid on someone, but it took a little bit of hunting to find the biggest suckout foisted upon me. There is no guarantee that what I found was the worst, but if there is a worse one, I simply don't want to remember it.

Worst suckout I laid on someone:

Party Poker, Limit: $0.50/$1 (6-max), 5 players

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with J♦ J♥
UTG folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, CO calls.

Flop: 2♠ A♥ J♣ (13SB, 3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, CO folds.

Turn: J♠ (7.5BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls (14.5:1).

River: 4♠ (15.5BB, 2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls.

Results: Final pot: 23.5BB
Hero shows J♦ J♥
SB doesn't show A♦ A♠

Wow. Nice one-outer on the flopped nuts vs. second-nuts. On the flop, here was my equity:

AA: 95.657%
JJ: 4.343%

Not that it matters, but when he check-raised me on the turn, I was 95% sure he had AA. When he capped it, there was no doubt. I wonder how many bets he'd have gone with the (now) second-nuts on the river if betting was uncapped?

The worst / most memorable suck-outs on me:

Full Tilt Poker, Limit: $1/$2 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with 6♦ 6♣
UTG calls, 4 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 6♥ J♣ 2♠ (3SB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, SB folds.

Turn: T♣ (2.5BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: 8♦ (4.5BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

Results: Final pot: 10.5BB
Hero showed 6♦ 6♣
UTG showed Q♦ 9♦

This hand was actually part of the screaming monkey tilt post I previously wrote. Villain was 54 / 0 / 0.3 and he called on the flop with no pair, no draw, and only one backdoor draw (the one that came in!), giving an equity of:

66: 96.768%
Q9: 3.232%

so this is even worse equity than my 1-outer above. The three-bet on the river was probably spew, especially against this guy, but his fishiness is shown clearly in that he didn't cap me in the river, even though he held the nuts. About two button revolutions later, he rivered a boat against my turned nut straight. Fun.

Worst performance of two consecutive premium hands:

This is also a hard one to do, but due to the fact it just happened to me, I'll include it as a category. I may have had two consecutive hands that were worse, but I simply don't remember them. First (and last) button revolution at the table.

Hand 1:
Poker Stars, Limit: $2/$4 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with A♦ A♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: Q♠ T♣ K♠ (8.5SB, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: 2♦ (8.25BB, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: T♠ (12.25BB, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls (14.25:1), BB calls.

Results: Final pot: 16.25BB
UTG+1 showed J♦ T♥
MP1 showed A♠ 4♠
BB mucks 6♠ 2♠
Hero mucks A♦ A♣

If I was better, I probably get away for the last bet on the river when the board pairs and the flush draw comes in and UTG+1 wakes up and MP1 calls. I was actually 4th best at the end.

Very next hand:

Poker Stars, Limit: $2/$4 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with K♦ K♥
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, SB 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero caps, SB calls.

Flop: 3♣ J♣ 5♣ (10SB, 2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls all-in $2.

Turn: A♥ (7BB, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: 7BB)

River: 9♦ (7BB, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: 7BB)

Results: Final pot: 7BB
SB showed A♣ 9♥
Hero mucks K♦ K♥

Fun.

And just for the fun of it, I recently exceeded my previous "biggest pot" although I suppose that can be expected now that I've re-taken up $2/$4 full-ring and the pots tend to be a bit bigger than their 6-max cousins.

Biggest pot, biggest profit: $85 with $54 profit

Poker Stars, Limit: $2/$4 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with K♠ K♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, 5 folds, 5 folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: 9♠ Q♦ K♥ (6.5SB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls (17.5:1).

Turn: 3♦ (9.25BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls (12.25:2), UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls (17.25:1).

River: 9♣ (18.25BB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Results: Final pot: 21.25BB

Hero showed K♠ K♣
UTG+1 mucks J♠ T♥
MP1 mucks K♦ Q♥

Flopped straight vs. top set vs. top two pair - the nuts vs. second nuts vs. fifth nuts. Wicked. UTG+1's flat-call / cap on the flop was very obviously JT so I I went into calldown mode and prayed desperately for the board to pair. Also on the river once it paired, I would have loved to have check-raised but I really didn't want to risk it being checked through (I thought it was pretty obvious what I had as well) so I donked it out. For once I was the lucky one, although the greedy bastard in me wishes the river had been a Q so I could have gotten the max out of the boat-over-boat action. :-)

Next post (I promise) - best / worst days and weeks.

A Year In Useless Stats, Part I - Big Pots

Well, it has been a full year since I started playing cards on the Internet for money. I started out on February 7, 2006 with a $75 Instant Bankroll promotion, a bit of book knowledge, and a lot of hope. Almost 51,000 hands and $6,000 later, I think I'm pretty happy with the way things went.

Since I'm a numbers / stats guy, the next series of posts will deal with some of the "records" that happened in the first year. Most of these have no redeeming values but are fun for me to look at, so you're all stuck for the next few posts. You don't like it, start your own blog. :-)

Many of these "records" will be separated into dollar records and BB records so as to not ignore my play at the lower levels.

Biggest Pot Won ($$): $68

1/18/2007, Full Tilt Poker, Limit: $2/$4 (6-max)

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q♠ Q♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, CO calls.

Flop: A♣ 9♦ 4♣ (14SB, 3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB raises, CO calls, Hero calls (19:1).

Turn: Q♥ (10BB, 3 players)
SB bets, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, CO folds.

River: 2♠ (15BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Results: Final pot: 17BB
Hero showed Q♠ Q♣
SB mucks A♥ K♠

Hand Comments:
Well it was obviously a nice suckout on the turn, but given the 19:1 odds I was getting to call the final bet on the flop, I actually had odds to draw to my 2-outer. I knew I was behind, and got lucky. Looking back at it, I wouldn't change the way I played this hand at all, which will not be the case for most of the other hands in this post.

Biggest Profit From One Pot ($$): $42

2/6/2007, Full Tilt Poker, Limit: $2/$4 (6-max)

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 9♥ 7♥
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls (2.5:1), Button calls, SB raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls (8:1), Button calls.

Flop: 7♣ Q♣ 9♠ (7.5SB, 5 players)
SB bets, BB raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: A♦ (8.75BB, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: 3♦ (11.75BB, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls all-in $3.

Results:
Final pot: 14.5BB ($63 pre-rake, Hero's net is $42)
Hero showed 9♥ 7♥
BB mucks Q♠ 8♥
UTG+1 mucks J♦ 9♣

Hand Comments:
Nice to have my biggest net profit in a pot come on the very last day of my 365 day year of playing. This is a "flop bottom two pair and hold on for your life" hand. No change to the way I'd play this hand either. Of possible interest, UTG+1 was a complete tard with stats of (get this) 92 / 0.7 / 0.4. Nice seat, huh?

Biggest Pot Lost and Biggest Loss in One Pot ($$): $99 pot, Hero's loss of $32

1/8/2007, Full Tilt Poker, Limit: $2/$4 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with A♠ J♥
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 3♠ J♠ 4♠ (7.5SB, 3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls (10.5:2), UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls (19.5:2), UTG calls.

Turn: A♣ (9.75BB, 3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls (21.75:1).

River: Q♥ (21.75BB, 3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls (23.75:1).

Results: Final pot: 24.75BB
UTG+1 showed 9♠ 8♠
UTG showed T♠ 5♠
Hero mucks A♠ J♥

Hand Comments:
Well, this one certainly did suck. I played this incredibly wrong, although the same result was bound to happen. I think the "right" way to play this once I flopped TPTK and the nut flush draw was to 3-bet the flop (and call the inevitable cap that would have come), and then call the turn with plenty good odds to draw to my nut flush and 4 full house outs. The river is a toughy - I simply don't know that I'm good enough to fold top two pair for a single bet in a 24 BB pot closing the action. It might have been -EV but +sanity in case those clowns would have both shown up with hands I could beat.

Biggest Profit From One Pot (BB): 27 BB

5/28/2006, Paradise Poker, Limit: $0.50/$1 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with J♣ T♣
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls (4.5:1), Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 9♣ 8♠ 5♦ (7SB, 7 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+2 raises, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls (12:2), Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: Q♥ (9.5BB, 6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+2 raises, MP3 3-bets, Hero caps, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: T♦ (29.5BB, 5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls (33.5:1).

Results: Final pot: 34.5BB
MP3 shows 7♥ 6♥
Hero shows J♣ T♣
SB shows Q♣ T♥
BB shows 9♥ 8♦
UTG+2 shows 8♣ 8♥

Hand Comments:
Now that is multiway action - flopped straight vs. turned straight vs. top two pair on the river vs. flopped top two pair vs. a flopped set.

Regardless of the outcome, I played this hand wrong on at least two streets. The flop is an easy 3-bet for value, and the river is an super easy raise. I have the second nuts, and there is simply no way someone hung around that long with KJ. Not raising this river is a crime, and I missed out on at least another 3-4 BB by failing to do so.

Biggest Loss in One Pot (BB): 10 BB

2/19/2006, Party Poker, Limit: $0.15/$0.3 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with Q♦ Q♠
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB caps, BB calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls (19:2), Button calls.

Flop: 9♦ Q♣ K♥ (22SB, 5 players)
SB bets, BB folds, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, SB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls (37:1).

Turn: 3♣ (19BB, 4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls (26:1).

River: 8♠ (27BB, 4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB folds, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls (33:2), Button caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls (38:1).

Results: Final pot: 39BB
Button shows J♣ T♠
MP1 mucks K♣ 8♥
Hero mucks Q♦ Q♠

Hand Comments:
Where to start? I (evidently) totally disregarded the button's cold-cap on the flop. The turn and river are pure spew. I should have checked/called the turn drawing to by full house, then checked the river. When I would have been faced with 2 bets back to me and not closing the action on the river I think I can safely lay down my set. Or so it seems. Even as played, I should have laid it down for 2 back to me, not closing the action. :-) I'll chalk this one up to it being within the first two weeks of starting play - I sucked more back then than I do now.

Well, that's all for the "big pots" post. Next post - best and worst days of the year.