Running bad

Well, after my run-up of 5+ BB/100 for 5000 hands, Karma decided to slap me upside the face:



That's a 140 BB downswing, and -3.22 BB/100 over my last two bonuses (about 3,100 hands). I've reviewed some hands, and in some cases I may have not been aggressive as I could, but in a lot of cases this is just expensive second-best hands and draws not coming in. Probably the exact opposite of my upswing, where every draw seemed to come in.

But the most amazing thing of all? I'm actually up about $30 in real-money during this downswing due to playing under a bonus for that time. How crazy is that?

That being said, I'm burned out enough by this downswing that I'm going to take a few days off and do a combination of read, review my game, and just plain chill. I have a Paradise Bonus I need to clear, but no hurry on it, and no "logical" next bonus to clear.

On a positive note, I made my first concrete purchase funded by poker - a new digital camera! All hail poker on the Internet!

$10,500 freeroll

As mentioned in my last blog post, another MTT was on my horizon - this time a $10,500 freeroll on Mother's Day (of all days). As it turns out, only 75 people decided to battle for all that money! It was therefore the equivalent (from a prize money perspective) as a $140 buy-in MTT. Amazing. Even more amazing is that the top 30 pay, starting with $52.50 for 30th place and moving up to the top prize of $1,995.

Initial stacks are 2,000 and the blinds start at 10/20, so at least we start with a decent amount of chips. I expect play to be VERY tight with that much money and that short a field.

My first key hand comes up only 11 minutes in, still in the first blind level:

Blinds: $10.00/$20.00, 9 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2000.00
UTG+1: $1970.00
MP1: $2325.00
Hero: $1885.00
MP3: $2030.00
CO: $2060.00
Button: $1840.00
SB: $1910.00
BB: $1950.00

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with J♥ J♦
3 folds, Hero raises to $75, MP3 raises to $300, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 9♦ 2♣ 7♥ ($630, 2 players)
Hero bets $255, MP3 raises to $510, Hero calls.

Turn: 4♦ ($1650, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $580, Hero folds.

Ouch. Half of my stack gone on that hand. Guy claims he had AA, and I believe him. I would have (and probably should have) folded to the flop raise, but my thought was that it was a min-raise and was worth calling. Fuzzy thinking - I'm pretty sure I'm playing to 2 outs, and the stacks aren't big enough to give me the implied odds I need to try to hit the J: I know I stack him if I hit my J, but to call $255 with 22-1 odds he'd have to have at least 5K left in front of him to make it worth my while, which he obviously didn't. Bad play, and I lost $255 more than I needed to here.

I get a very small amount back a few minutes later with:

Blinds: $10.00/$20.00, 9 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1840.00
UTG+1: $1910.00
MP1: $1940.00
MP2: $1970.00
MP3: $1970.00
CO: $2295.00
Hero: $1045.00
SB: $2900.00
BB: $2100.00

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 10♥ 10♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises to $85, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 8♠ 8♦ 2♥ ($200, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $125, UTG+1 folds.

and then give it all back almost immediately with:

Blinds: $15.00/$30.00, 9 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1820.00
UTG+1: $1985.00
MP1: $1925.00
MP2: $1910.00
MP3: $2205.00
Hero: $1085.00
Button: $2855.00
SB: $2185.00
BB: $1985.00

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with 2♥ 2♣
5 folds, Hero raises to $65, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: A♣ K♣ 6♦ ($160, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $85, SB calls.

Turn: 3♣ ($330, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: Q♦ ($330, 2 players)
SB bets $150, Hero folds.

I'm now under 1,000, which at this point is under 30 BB. I'm getting shortstacked already, and we're only 20 minutes in! I start tightening way up, and don't play much of anything until the blinds are 50/100 and I'm sitting on 785 chips. All-in or fold from here on out, methinks.

• I push with AJo unopened, no caller. Up to 935.
• I take a round of blinds, back down to 785.
• I push with JJ in EP2, no caller. Up to 935.
• I take the BB and someone with only 110 pushes, and I call with JTo for the additional 10. I win against A9o when I spike a T on the river. Up to 1020.

We hit our first break and only 15 people (or so) have busted out. Still a LONG way to go, and I believe I am 58th chip position out of the 60 people left. Blinds go up to 75 /150 out of the break, so I'm still in an all-in or fold situation.

• I push with 66 in MP1, no caller. Up to 1245.
• I take a round of blinds, back down to 1020.
• I push with KQo on the button, no caller. Back up to 1245.
• I take a round of blinds, back down to 1020.
• I push with KK in MP2, no caller. Up to 1245.
• I take two sets of blinds and get semi-involved with a free look in my BB and lose a bit. Down to 870.

Somewhere around here I officially become "last place guy" and am 55th of of 55 remaining.

Blinds go up to 100/200. First hand of the new blinds:

Blinds: $100.00/$200.00, 10 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $4460.00
UTG+1: $1852.50
UTG+2: $2835.00
MP1: $3430.00
MP2: $2530.00
MP3: $5030.00
Hero: $870.00
Button: $3185.00
SB: $1035.00
BB: $2030.00

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 4♥ 4♦
6 folds, Hero raises all-in $870, Button calls, 2 folds.

Button shows A♦ Q♦

Flop: 10♥ 10♠ 6♣ ($2040, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2040)

Turn: 7♠ ($2040, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2040)

River: 3♦ ($2040, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2040)

Results: Final pot: $2040

Whew. I win the coin flip and I go over 2,000 chips for the first time in the tournament - over 80 minutes in! I still only have 10 BB, so more all-in or fold.....

• Very next hand I pick up AQo in MP2, push, no caller. Up to 2340.
• I get a free look in a BvB and bet the flop when checked to. Up to 2440.
• I go card dead and fold a few set of blinds.

Blinds go up to 150/300.

• I push ATo in MP3, no caller. Up to 2290.
• A stack shorter than a BB goes all-in while I'm in the BB with 96o. I'm against 88, but hit a 9 on the river. Up to 2467.
• I win a BvB. Up to 2917.
• I min-raise 44 in MP3 (WHAT?!?! I don't have enough chips to pull this off!!!!), the button goes all-in and has me covered. I fold. Down to 2162. This is horrible play by me, but may have saved my bacon.
• I lose a BvB, down to 1712.

Then, what I could argue is the key hand of the tournament for me:

Blinds: $150.00/$300.00, 8 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $7065.00
UTG+1: $5285.00
MP1: $4710.00
MP2: $2357.50
CO: $9582.50
Button: $3030.00
SB: $2660.00
Hero: $1412.50

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with 9♣ 9♠
2 folds, MP1 raises to $900, 4 folds, Hero raises all-in $1412.5, MP1 calls.

MP1 shows A♣ 10♦

Flop: K♠ 9♥ 5♥ ($3275, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2975, Sidepot 1: $300)

Turn: J♣ ($3275, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2975, Sidepot 1: $300)

River: 8♦ ($3275, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2975, Sidepot 1: $300)

Results: Final pot: $3275

YES! For what it is worth, we still haven't hit the money, but are quite close and my stack is now big enough to "coast" to the money should I choose to. But I don't.

The blinds go up to 200/400. Still less than 10 BB, so more all-in or fold.....

• I push ATo in the cutoff, no callers. Up to 3975.
• I take a round of blinds.
• I push KK from the button, no callers. Up to 4575.
• Very next hand, I raise to 955 with AJs from the cutoff, no callers. Up to 5175.
• I win a button vs BB with complete air. Up to 5730.

The blinds go up to 300/600. I think we hit the money bubble somewhere around here.

• I take a round of blinds.
• I push AKo from the cutoff, no callers. Up to 6030.
• I push KK UTG, no callers. Up to 6930

I am in the top 10 in chip position. Amazing - how many times in an MTT structure have I pulled this trick off? Chip and a chair.....

Blinds go up to 400/800.

A short stack (530) pushed UTG, I raised another 2155 with KQo. UTG had AA and won. Lucky for him - he'd have had to go all-in blind on the very next hand and needed FAR less than AA here. Thus my raise with KQo. But I'm down to only 6670, due to picking up some dead blind money from the deal.

I think we get down to 20 people somewhere around here.

• I take a bunch of blinds and am down to 4270.
• I push ATs on the button, no callers. Up to 5470.
• I take the BB at 400/800, then the SB at 500/1000, then another round of blinds at 500/1000 with no cards at all. Not even steal-worthy cards. Down to 2670, under 3 BB, and insanely desperate.

I pick up KTs on the button, but poker1eh has raised before me - enough to put me all-in. Probably should have called, but folded.

Time for the ever-present math portion of my posts:

Assuming both blinds fold, it would have been 2670 to win 6840, so I only need to win 39% of the time to make a profitable call here. He says he had AQo. PokerStove tells me I have 41% equity here against this exact hand, so even if he flips his hand over, I have a marginal call. Against his entire range of hands he COULD have, I think I messed this one up big-time. Against (for example) any pair, any two broadway, I am 47.8%. I needed to make that call, even if I went busto doing it. Plus, I only have 4 more hands until I have to post a BB which will resign me to going all in with almost any two cards. Am I likely to get a better hand or situation than KJs in the next 4 hands? Likely not. I suck. :-)

Amazingly enough, though, just two hands later I pick up KJo in MP3 and push. The SB re-raises to get the BB out of the way and flips over 55. Coin flip. The board comes A998Q and I go out in 13th place, winning $210. Not bad for just under 3 hours worth of work, though.

My buddy poker1eh actually had the chip lead with about 16 people to go and wound up taking 6th for $525, busting out on TT vs. 99 when a 9 hit the board. My brother took 32nd place (just out of the money) when he had AK vs. QQ. He improved with an A, but so did the QQ with another Q.

I can't wait until the next one - I could play short field 10K freerolls every day!

In terms of analyzing my (possible) mistakes made:

My early JJ hand - I don't know if I'm supposed to lose more there or less there. JJ vs. AA is going to be painful when both remain overpairs. Maybe if I'm a better NL player I actually fold that one to the re-raise preflop: he re-raised about 1/7 of my stack - is it worth it to continue? Especially if I don't spike a J?

My min-raise with 44 late in the tourney. Donkey. Either fold it or go all in with less than 10 BB.

My KK pushes that only picked up the blinds:

• KK in MP2 with 7 BB
• KK OTB with 9 BB
• KK UTG with 10 BB

One can argue I could have min-raised any of them (especially the UTG one) and then hoped someone tried coming over the top so I could at least pick up a little extra $. But I really don't mind the pushes - I figure eventually someone is eventually going to get sick of me pushing and call, and I don't really mind not seeing flops and letting the random Ax I let in for cheap hitting their A. Stealing is worth 1.5 BB, and is a significant chunk of change at that point.

As far as tightness, I folded all the below hands preflop. Unless otherwise noted, all are unopened to me, and are in time order in the tourney. Some of these are obvious mistakes, but nowhere near all of them. They are also lacking context (BB willingness to defend, where the big/short stacks are, how close to the bubble we are, etc.) which makes them hard to look at in list form this way, but I figure I'll lay them all out anyways, and I can look up the specific situation if any of my readers wish to debate my play. :-)

• Folded KJo in EP2 with 40 BB.
• Folded Q9o on the button with 35 BB.
• Folded 99 in EP2 with 30 BB.
• Folded 66 UTG with 30 BB.
• Folded 88 UTG with 30 BB.
• Folded QJs in MP1 with 18 BB
• Folded A9o in CO with 9 BB.
• Folded 66 in MP1 with 8 BB
• Folded 88 UTG with 12 BB.
• Folded A9o in CO with 6 BB
• Folded 99 OTB to a 3 BB raise by MP3 who had me covered when I only had 10 BB
• Folded ATo in MP2 with 6 BB
• Folded A8o OTB with 8 BB
• Folded KTs in MP1 with 13 BB
• Folded KJo in EP3 with 10 BB
• Folded A4o OTB with 11 BB

Miscellany

Well, I figure in tribute to my new reader from work (hey, Shane!), the "official" passing of 3 months since I started, just clearing a bonus, and running insanely well that I'd throw a hodge-podge of junk into a post:

I've changed some of the sidebar items to have a "permanent" home for my bankroll updates and any assorted statistics / trivia / leaks may be on my mind at the time.

Summary of my journey so far: started with $75 from an Instant Bankroll promotion, and played at the PartyPoker $0.15/$0.30 beginner tables. I have had some success at both freeroll No Limit tournaments and ring limit play, and have built my bankroll to over $1,000 playing (on average) about 10 hours per week. I am thinking about clearing at least a portion of my new bonus at $1/$2. At the very least I am bankrolled for it now.

From a previous post on personal variance, the last graph you saw of mine was a 120BB+ downturn. As a result of this downturn I posted on a question on the 2+2 message boards about what win rate was likely sustainable. As chance would have it, a very generous guy (hey, Chuck!) offered to review my hand histories. Since literally that moment on, I have been playing well and running well (click image to enlarge):



The very bottom of that downswing is where Chuck started critiquing my hand histories, and I have been running at nearly 5.4 BB/100 over the nearly 6000 hands since then.

I mentioned I may try to clear my next bonus (Poker Rewards, 25% up to $50, 10x) at $1/$2. One of the reasons I am even considering this is it would be a good experiment in using all the data I have gathered via datamining the Prima sites. I have almost 45,000 hands in my PokerTracker database at $1/$2, even though I have never played a single hand at that level. Pretty cool for getting a line on people you've never played against before at a new level.

My overall assessments of the poker sites - Party and Paradise are absolute fish havens, but the Prima skins are pretty well populated with a much higher percentage of good players. I plan on continuing to bonus-whore for quite some time, but could really see myself settling down ay Party and/or Paradise. The games are just that soft there.

Well, I told you all this was a random assortment. Shane, between myself, poker1eh, and my brother (QuadMan) I think we've all proven that money is here to be made online. It isn't easy by any stretch of the imagination, and you'll go through some emotional rollercoaters - far more than you would think over this "insignificant" amount of money. But if you're really interested and willing to put the time in to study and get better, it can be fun and profitable. Come join the club!

Next up, the $10,000 Poker Rewards freeroll on Sunday night. I sure hope my No Limit game hasn't suffered from playing limit for so long.....

Basic Hand Statistics after 3 Months of Play

Well, I'm about 3 months and 16000 hands into this journey, and thought I'd write a brief post on some PokerTracker stats. Some of these stats (especially the individual hand discussions) may not be worth much. 16000 hands seems like a huge amount, but that means I've (on average) only seen each of the pairs 72 times, the suited hands 48 times, and the offsuit hands 145 times. A bad (or good) hand or two can definitely still affect the average in a major way with this few hands. That being said.....

The first stat I will look at is BB/hand - a measure of how much you expect to win with a hand, on average. My top 5 hands are (in order):

KK: 1.99 BB/hand
QQ: 1.55 BB/hand
AKs: 1.33 BB/hand
JJ: 1.17 BB/hand
AA: 1.05 BB/hand

Those would be the 5 hands I would expect, although not quite in that order. My AA average is horrid. I have reviewed the hand histories on these, and I don't think it is a case of "falling in love" with the hand. I think it is simply variance over having only seen the hand 84 times, and losing with it the first 6 times in a row. Scary thing is that I would have to earn 3 BB/hand with it over the next 3 months just to get it to exceed my KK average!

My worst five hands are:
88: -0.50 BB/hand
Q9s: -0.36 BB/hand
A9s: -0.35 BB/hand
76s: -0.32 BB/hand
T9s: -0.31 BB/hand

Most of these (being suited hands) could likely be as a simple result of variance - again, I only have 50 or so sample size on the suited hands. However, 88 being my worst hand is certainly concerning. I would expect 88 to be at least marginally profitable.

It wouldn't be my blog without a graph and a table or two, so here goes: Here's a graph of BB/hand for all my hands. Click for larger version, as usual.



Note the graph looks amazingly like the graph in Small Stakes Hold-Em, page 47, including the bizarre downturn at the right hand side. The "blind steal" line corresponds to 0.75 BB/hand; the amount you get out of a blind steal. The "fold every hand" line corresponds to -0.075 BB/hand; the amount you'd lose if you simply fold every single time you got dealt the hand.

Many things are apparent from this graph:

1) There are VERY few hands that are more profitable than a "simple" blind steal. In my case, I have exactly 7 hands in this category (the previously mentioned 5 hands, along with AQs and AQo)

2) No hand in my database is worth more (on average) than a scenario where I raise preflop, drag both blinds with me, they check to me on the flop, I bet, and take it down. That is a 2 BB profit, and no hand currently exceeds that winrate. Long term, AA and KK probably take down more than 2 BB/hand but not significantly more than that.

3) Only 50 of the 169 hands are profitable at all. As it turns out, only 12 of those 50 profitable hands are offsuit, and only 7 of THOSE hands I believe are long-term profitable - the other 5 are only marginally profitable through short-term variance in my database. Those 7 hands are: AKo, AQo, AJo, ATo, KQo, KTo, QJo. Yes, KJo is unprofitable in my hands so far, but I would imagine that this would join the 7 hands above in the long term. Two big Broadway cards seem to be the only profitable offsuit hands.

4) I am losing more than a simple strategy of "fold every hand" with 64 of my 169 hands. Even if I "cut myself a break" and say that some of them are worth completing in the SB, then get folded (meaning a loss rate of -0.1 BB/hand), I still lose more than that on 42 hands, including 44, 66, 77, and 88. Other than the pairs, most of the hands are suited hands that I am either only playing out of the SB, or maybe calling a single raise in the BB with, so I'm not too worried - sample size variance and draws not coming in could be a source of that. But the mid/small pair loss bothers me quite a bit, and a few offsuit hands are in there that I have no business playing at all (Q4o? 52o? Q8o? J5o? J7o? K7o? T4o? - these are all hands that I am losing over 0.1 BB/hand that I really have no business playing from anywhere). This needs to be fixed.

For the truly curious, here are all my 169 hands and their profitability:



Green correspnds to "better than a blind steal", red corresponds to a loss of greater than 0.1 BB/hand, and light blue (arbitrarily) corresponds to a prfoitability greater than 0.1 BB/hand. The other hands are between -0.1 BB/hand and 0.1 BB/hand, so it is unclear where they really lie.

That's about all for today - In the future I may break these out by position once I get a few more hands in to see how profitability varies by position. I also may compare these to the EV values published at pokerroom.com. Fun, fun!