Cake Poker Results

Well, I managed to get a blog post within 4 months of a previous posting of mine. Go me.

Instead of just guessing how well I was doing at Cake, I decided to break out a combination of "find in file" and some scripts to gather some basic information about how I'm doing. As of last night.....

My bankroll on the site is $1,349.54, consisting of $500 deposit, $20 initial bonus, $50 instant bonus, $120 cleared bonus, $659.54 in profit.

I have played 4830 hands, broken down as follows:

$0.50/$1 : 589 hands
$1/$2: 3682 hands
$2/$4: 559 hands

However, in order to get a "true" BB/100, I would need my individual $ won broken down by levels, but that would require some scripting skill that I simply do not have nor want to learn. So how should I estimate?

Well, if my win rate (in BB/100) is the same across all the levels, then the following equation should hold.

589 /100 * WR * 1 + 3682 /100 * WR * 2 + 559 /100 * WR * 4 = 659.54.

I am absolutely positive my win rate is not the same across all levels, but lets run with it - it at least seems reasonable. Solving the above equation for WR (yes, algebra does come in handy sometimes), I get a win rate of 6.47 BB/100, so about what I had estimated before. Nice to know my estimating skills haven't gotten too rusty.

If I make the assumption that my win rate is less at the higher levels due to the better players there (LOL), then my win rate actually must be higher than 6.47 BB/100. Just as a test example of this, assume that my win rate at $1/$2 is 80% of my $0.50/$1 win rate and my $2/$4 win rate is 80% of that. Then I get the following:

589 /100 * WR * 1 + 3682 /100 * 0.8 * WR * 2 + 559 /100 * 0.8 * 0.8 * WR * 4 = 659.54.

giving a win rate of just over 8.3 BB/100.

In either case, I'll take it. Whether it is just running sick-hot over 5000 hands or beating up on the feebs I'm not quite sure but the money sure spends the same either way.