A Year In Useless Stats, Part II - Suckouts

OK, I lied. I had planned on the next post being about best days / weeks but it turns out all the stats I compiled for that are on another computer, so I present to you instead some suckouts until I can get around to the other posts.

This is somewhat a difficult post to write, as there is no way to go into PokerTracker and query it to display the largest suckouts. I am therefore reliant on my memory to try to remember some of the biggest. It was very, very easy for me to remember the biggest suckout I laid on someone, but it took a little bit of hunting to find the biggest suckout foisted upon me. There is no guarantee that what I found was the worst, but if there is a worse one, I simply don't want to remember it.

Worst suckout I laid on someone:

Party Poker, Limit: $0.50/$1 (6-max), 5 players

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with J♦ J♥
UTG folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, CO calls.

Flop: 2♠ A♥ J♣ (13SB, 3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, CO folds.

Turn: J♠ (7.5BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls (14.5:1).

River: 4♠ (15.5BB, 2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls.

Results: Final pot: 23.5BB
Hero shows J♦ J♥
SB doesn't show A♦ A♠

Wow. Nice one-outer on the flopped nuts vs. second-nuts. On the flop, here was my equity:

AA: 95.657%
JJ: 4.343%

Not that it matters, but when he check-raised me on the turn, I was 95% sure he had AA. When he capped it, there was no doubt. I wonder how many bets he'd have gone with the (now) second-nuts on the river if betting was uncapped?

The worst / most memorable suck-outs on me:

Full Tilt Poker, Limit: $1/$2 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with 6♦ 6♣
UTG calls, 4 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 6♥ J♣ 2♠ (3SB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, SB folds.

Turn: T♣ (2.5BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: 8♦ (4.5BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

Results: Final pot: 10.5BB
Hero showed 6♦ 6♣
UTG showed Q♦ 9♦

This hand was actually part of the screaming monkey tilt post I previously wrote. Villain was 54 / 0 / 0.3 and he called on the flop with no pair, no draw, and only one backdoor draw (the one that came in!), giving an equity of:

66: 96.768%
Q9: 3.232%

so this is even worse equity than my 1-outer above. The three-bet on the river was probably spew, especially against this guy, but his fishiness is shown clearly in that he didn't cap me in the river, even though he held the nuts. About two button revolutions later, he rivered a boat against my turned nut straight. Fun.

Worst performance of two consecutive premium hands:

This is also a hard one to do, but due to the fact it just happened to me, I'll include it as a category. I may have had two consecutive hands that were worse, but I simply don't remember them. First (and last) button revolution at the table.

Hand 1:
Poker Stars, Limit: $2/$4 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with A♦ A♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: Q♠ T♣ K♠ (8.5SB, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: 2♦ (8.25BB, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: T♠ (12.25BB, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls (14.25:1), BB calls.

Results: Final pot: 16.25BB
UTG+1 showed J♦ T♥
MP1 showed A♠ 4♠
BB mucks 6♠ 2♠
Hero mucks A♦ A♣

If I was better, I probably get away for the last bet on the river when the board pairs and the flush draw comes in and UTG+1 wakes up and MP1 calls. I was actually 4th best at the end.

Very next hand:

Poker Stars, Limit: $2/$4 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with K♦ K♥
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, SB 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero caps, SB calls.

Flop: 3♣ J♣ 5♣ (10SB, 2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls all-in $2.

Turn: A♥ (7BB, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: 7BB)

River: 9♦ (7BB, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: 7BB)

Results: Final pot: 7BB
SB showed A♣ 9♥
Hero mucks K♦ K♥

Fun.

And just for the fun of it, I recently exceeded my previous "biggest pot" although I suppose that can be expected now that I've re-taken up $2/$4 full-ring and the pots tend to be a bit bigger than their 6-max cousins.

Biggest pot, biggest profit: $85 with $54 profit

Poker Stars, Limit: $2/$4 (full-ring)

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with K♠ K♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, 5 folds, 5 folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: 9♠ Q♦ K♥ (6.5SB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls (17.5:1).

Turn: 3♦ (9.25BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls (12.25:2), UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls (17.25:1).

River: 9♣ (18.25BB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Results: Final pot: 21.25BB

Hero showed K♠ K♣
UTG+1 mucks J♠ T♥
MP1 mucks K♦ Q♥

Flopped straight vs. top set vs. top two pair - the nuts vs. second nuts vs. fifth nuts. Wicked. UTG+1's flat-call / cap on the flop was very obviously JT so I I went into calldown mode and prayed desperately for the board to pair. Also on the river once it paired, I would have loved to have check-raised but I really didn't want to risk it being checked through (I thought it was pretty obvious what I had as well) so I donked it out. For once I was the lucky one, although the greedy bastard in me wishes the river had been a Q so I could have gotten the max out of the boat-over-boat action. :-)

Next post (I promise) - best / worst days and weeks.