The End, For Quite Some Time

The last I posted (about online play, anyway) I was lamenting about how bad I had been running at $2/$4 and had determined to drop down to $1/$2 to retool my game. As it turns out, I have done as bad (if not worse) at $1/$2 in the week-and-a-half since then than I ever had at $2/$4. I even came back from my Casino Windsor experience with some confidence that I didn't completely suck as a player. Then I played Sunday night and dropped 60 BB in 277 hands to dispel any notion that I know what I'm doing. The sick graph of all of my $1/$2 and $2/$4 6-max hands are below.


That's right - that is a 300 BB drop in 3K hands after running at 2.55 BB/100 for my first 11K hands. Sick. It is literally to the point where I hope that I am dealt horrible cards so I have to fold them and not even have the opportunity to lose any more money. That's a bad, bad sign. I don't even enjoy sitting down anymore - I just get a feeling of dread with every hand that I play.

So, I'm through. That's right, just like that. I'm not even going to bother clearing the rest of my PPA bonus. Not another single hand of poker for an indefinite amount of time, but in my mind this period of time is at least three months. Done. Finished. I'm tempted to not even do a last Bankroll Update but the detail oriented part of me will probably win and I'll do one final update with the sobering numbers. In reality, though, doing that may help keep my recent loss in perspective as I've still made an incredible amount of money even after this downswing.

Will I play again after three months? It is very likely, as I cannot simply quit - not that I am a compulsive gambler (far from it), but that I simply can't walk away from this challenge a failure. I know I can succeed, but this downswing has put me in a psychological place that is not healthy, and I at least have the self-awareness to realize it and back off for now. When I play again, I hope to have a different, better attitude towards the game than I currently do.

So, what will I do with my time? Well, I'm glad you asked. It has always been a life goal of mine to write a book. So, seems like a good use of the time I will have freed up from poker, right? And, as you likely expect from me, I will blog about the writing of the book at one of my other blogs (as found in my profile). So, au revoir from this blog for a while, and I'll see you over at The Money Geek.

Another Night at Casino Windsor

Well, in the midst of my massive downswing (200+ BB - I'm sure a topic of an upcoming post) I decided to venture over to Casino Windsor again with poker1eh. When I got to the casino at about 4:30 in the afternoon (nice!), there were about 5 people in line for the $3/$6 game and (get this) 33 people in line for a $1/$2 No Limit game. Wow. Nobody seems to want to play limit hold-em live anymore. Later in the evening they even started a $5/$10, $500 minimum buyin NL cash game. A bit too rich for my blood....

Anyways, so I get seated a bit before 5:00 and await for the fun to start. The first few button revs were primarily pots won by huge, huge hands, including a ton of boats. The fish were the usual fish: cold calling 2 (and even 3) bets with total garbage. However, in contrast to my previous experiences, there was a lot more raising both preflop and on the flop generating some pretty big pots.

Some hands of note:

6 limpers to me in the SB with KK. I raise, all call. 7 ways to the flop for 14 SB. I declare "I bet $3 blind" before the flop came out. I have no idea why (maybe to try to get people to fold to my obvious monster - I had already lost earlier with KK vs. TT when someone flopped a ten). Anyways, the flop is QJ6 (or so). My bet is called once, it gets around to poker1eh in mid-ish position and he raises. Folded around to the button, populated by an extremely passive woman (who I don't think I'd seen bet all night, much less raise).

She 3-bets.

Holy crap. I pause, stare at them both and say "what in the hell do you guys HAVE???" I knew for sure the lady had to have a set, but didn't really know what poker1eh was on. Confused, I call, figuring the pot was huge enough to peel (although I didn't count it out) with my 2 outs and backdoor straight draw, poker1eh calls. 3 to the turn for 12 BB or so.

Turn is a K. A beautiful K. I check, poker1eh checks, lady bets and I raise. poker1eh calls 2 and the lady calls. 3 to the river for 18 BB or so.

River was a blank 3, completing no draws. I bet, get called in both places and take a post-rake pot of about $120 down with my 2-out suckout on the turn. The lady said she indeed had a set and poker1eh was on a flopped 2 pair. Ouch. poker1eh said later he knew his calldown was wrong and should have folded on the turn, but just couldn't lay it down on the off chance I was on AK.

After not much longer, the passive lady was replaced by the fishiest old guy I have ever seen. Never made an bet himself, but called down with anything. Yum. I'm in the BB with TT and there are eleventy-billion limpers to me, including the old guy. I check, figuring to play this for set value instead of trying to push my edge preflop. Flop is J44 and the old guy in the SB bets out for possibly the first time of the evening into the semi-infinite field remaining. Easiest insta-fold of TT on a ragged flop I've ever made. In fact, he folded the whole field with that bet, so it wasn't just me who had noticed his "tendency." And remember these are people who have shown a tendency to call with anything on the flop.......

I was in early position and limped 99. About 5 or 6 callers, BB checks. Flop 555, SB bets out, BB folds and it is on me. My mind screamed "this is the easiest raise EVER" to blow out the field behind me (and it wasn't like I had been shy in making these raises at other points in the evening with as little as second pair, much less a boat), but then another part of my mind said "you know, you really can't blow out anyone with a raise on such an obvious flop - everyone is going to stick around trying to hit their overcard. Wait until a safe turn card and THEN blow them out with a raise." OK, maybe a reasonable argument until you ask - what the hell is a safe turn card in a giant field of limpers? Any card T or above is potential death for my hand. But I don't think that far ahead and merely call. The whole field calls. The turn is the K and the SB bets out again. OK, the only worse card there would have been an A (OK, maybe a 5 would have been worse......). I fold to the SB's bet, figuring someone had to have a K. It turns out not. Everyone folded and the SB flipped 33. DAMN!!!!!!! I played that like crap. If there is any solace in that hand, it "only" cost me $6.

I had KQ offsuit in MP and limped behind (what I thought) were two limpers. Turns out, it was an UTG raise and a cold-caller. My only options were to fold and forfeit my $3 or call the $6. So, I call the $6. Something like 6 people to the flop for 2 bets apiece. Flop ATx, giving me a gutshot to the nuts. Looks like I'm sucked into this one assuming it is only one bet to me on the flop, which it is. We may have lost one player, but pot size going into the turn is 8-9 BB Turn is a blank. A bet and a few calls into me and I still have a gutshot to the nuts and odds to draw to it. I call. River blanks off and I have to fold. Well there is a $15 lesson in paying attention - I'd have never been in the hand in the first place if I wasn't spacing.

I have QQ on the button. Some limpers into me, I raise, UTG calls, and I think I had 1-2 more callers. Flop Qxx single suited. Checked to me, I bet, only UTG calls. Turn A, putting 4-to-a-flush on the board and UTG bets into me. Fuck me. Admittedly this is a scare card, but it seems live people tend to bet their hands. This particular guy was not as super-straightforward as all of them, but I've got to put him on either an ace taking a stab or a big flush. I decide to call and try to spike my boat. River blanks off and he bets into me again. I agonize for a bit and fold face up (probably a mistake, but I was frustrated). He claims he did indeed have the nut flush. I believe him, if for no other reason than my sanity. With fortuitous timing, though, I pick up AA the very next hand. A combination of looking like I'm on tilt and having the (recently shown!) capability of laying down a big hand on the river nets me a decent sized pot.

Two (or so) limpers into poker1eh in MP who raises. Folded to me in the BB and I look down at KK. I 3-bet and I think we get one caller between us. Flop QJx. I bet out, guy calls, around to poker1eh who raises me. OK, here I go brain dead. I do the whole "he knows that my 3-betting range out of the BB is insanely tight - what can he possibly have that he can raise me with?" I go completely weak-tight and shut down, putting him immediately on AA, QQ, or JJ. I call his raise, check-call the turn, the river goes check-check, and he shows me AQ and I feel like an idiot. Of course, if I raise him on the turn (which I actually considered for a second before I realized I had no gonads) he has an easy fold, so I don't think I make any more money out of the hand, but I still played it like crap.

One more hand - the details aren't horribly important, but I wound up on the button with a runner-runner second nut flush on the river, with the CO and both blinds still in. SB and BB checked to the CO who bet. I (with 100% certainty) knew I had the best hand, but actually had the presence of mind to think "am I going to make more money by going for overcalls from the donks behind me, or raising?" I determined the overcall route was the way to go. Unfortunate, because both blinds folded, but I think it was definitely the correct play in that situation.

There was one freaky hand that I wasn't involved in where a guy's 5 kicker played and won him the pot: A guy's A5 won on a A4288 board against another guy's A3. Not every day you see a 5 kicker matter, much less be the best kicker.......

For the evening, I played my draws pretty strongly (raising them where appropriate) and felt pretty good about that. I also did the whole "raise to thin the field" with marginal hands well with the exceptions noted above. But in general, I still think I wimp out on river value bets, and check behind in position FAR more often than I should. The key that I have to keep remembering is that they will simply call with anything and will not check-raise the river (for example, I had a guy catch his 2-outer set on the river and merely check-called me. And this was not a guy shy about raising either.) So I don't have to worry about losing 2 bets on the river the vast majority of the time.

Overall it seemed like I got more than my share of premium pairs (AA, KK 4 times, QQ once) and also hit more than my fair share of draws. There were (of course) the nasty suckouts but those are to be expected in a loose-passive game. I was actually up $100-ish reasonably quickly (primarily due to the 2-outer KK hand above) but I gave it all back and at one point was down about $4 or so. But then got it almost all back and wound up $95 on the night after playing a bit past 2:00 AM. Up about 16 BB in 8-ish hours of play. That'll do - definitely my biggest win live, and a decent boost for the confidence.

Whew - this was much longer than I expected. My apologies to poker1eh - both for whaling on him both times with my KK and for the nasty suckouts he experienced at the end of the night. Brutal.

I am the Worst Poker Player on the Planet

OK, maybe not, but man do I feel beaten down. I'll let the graph speak for itself:

Yup, that is nearly 150 BB ($600 - a significant chunk of my bankroll) down in 5500 hands. And while I never claim to play perfectly, I do not think I am playing badly at all. In fact, a significant fraction of the hands at $2/$4 are single-tabled so that I can truly focus on the players and reads, and (if anything) I am more diligent at seat/table selection than I am at $1/$2. It just seems I am getting suckout after suckout. Just as an example, from my 222 hands last night, which left me down a total of $148.50 (yes, by far my worst night so far....)

• I open-raise AQo in the CO, SB calls, BB 3-bets, all call. Flop AQ6. SB hits runner runner 2 and 3 to make a straight with his 54s.
• I openraise AJo UTG (6-max), called by the SB and BB. Flop KQT (2 suited) so for now, I've got the nuts. The turn and river come K and Q for a final board of KQTKQ to turn my hand into trash.
• I have Q9 on a board of x9TJK. Opponent has AQ.

as well as the "usual" QQ vs AA on a T-high board, and AA being beaten by a rivered flush. I only won one pot of any significant size (KK that remained an overpair and somehow didn't get sucked out on by my 2 opponents).

In comparison, here is my $1/$2 results:


Quite a difference. I simply don't understand the wildly divergent results I am getting between the two levels. As I've said before, I think the $2/$4 games are softer in some ways (especially preflop raising) than the $1/$2 games, although the opponents are probably better at hand reading and other postflop skills at $2/$4.

I understand variance and to focus on the correct decisions rather than results but being down nearly 150 BB at the highest level I've played seems to make that application of that a bit hard. Maybe it is time to step down to $1/$2 to "re-tool" my game, but I honestly don't know what this will accomplish - I don't think my game is in massive need of overhaul, but perhaps the reduced stakes will make the losses a bit easier to take.

Perhaps I need to visit the Psychology forum on 2+2 - I know I've got a bit more of my ego tied up in these results than I should ("I know I'm a better poker player than this!"), and perhaps there is some decent advice on how to work through it. Any other advice my legion of readers have would also be much appreciated......

A Year In Useless Stats, Part IV - Hand Values

Well, my "Year In...." posts seemed to have come to a screeching halt with the last one. Due to the fact that I got really, really busy and the subject material for this post turned out to not be as interesting as I thought it would be, it has been 3 weeks since the last post.

Luckily for all involved, it will also likely be the last.

This post is very similar to one of my previous posts about hand values (http://thepokergeek.blogspot.com/2006/05/basic-hand-statistics-after-3-months.html) but with more hands (almost 40K full ring hands) under my belt.

The following 6 hands are the only hands in full-ring that are worth more than a blind steal:

• KK: 2.015 BB/hand
• AA: 1.9336
• QQ: 1.7265
• AKs: 1.2494
• JJ: 1.0245
• AQo: 0.7699

Still quite weird to me that AA is not my best hand, but has gained quite a bit of ground from the last time, where it was actually my fifth-place hand. Also, last time I had one additional hand (AQs) more profitable than a a blind steal, but it didn't "make the cut" this time.

Here are my worst 5 hands:

• Q9s: -0.1761 BB/hand
• J8s: -0.1644
• K2s: -0.1628
• J9s: -0.1619
• 32s: -0.1567

This is far different from last time where I had 5 hands worse than -0.30 BB/hand, and my worst hand was actually a pocket pair: 88 was losing me a big fat 0.50 BB everytime I played it.

Here is my entire range as a graph, and as a table:

The graph looks pretty much the same as last time, except for the lack of the huge tailoff at the end that corresponded to my 88 and other horrible hands. The green shading in the table correspnds to hands more profitable than a blind-steal, the blue shading on the graph are hands that are profitable, but less so than a blind steal, and the red hands are hands that are losing at a rate of worse than (somewhat arbitrarily) -0.15 BB/hand.

If you look at the table, it reinforces a point that I made in the previous post - very, very few offsuit hands are profitable - and even fewer profitable by more than a marginal amount. Pretty much just A-big and KQo are the big hitters and the other two-Broadway card combinations are marginally profitable. In the suited realm, however, many more hands become profitable - most suited Aces, big suited Kings and suited connectors can be seen in addition to the 2-Broadway cards. I (evidently) have a weakness in the suited 9 category (Q9s, J9s, T9s all solidly unprofitable).

In terms of raw numbers, 47 of my 169 hands are profitable. Of these 47 hands, only 10 of them are offsuit, and all but 98o are combinations of two broadway cards.

Just for the heck of it, I'll include some 6-max hand values, although I really don't have enough hands to make them worthwhile. My 9 hands that are better than a blind steal are:

• AA: 2.8582
• KK: 2.4052
• QQ: 1.8455
• JJ: 1.3927
• A9s: 1.3029
• QJs: 1.1676
• AKo: 0.9027
• AQo 0.8986
• A6s 0.7699

That's more like it, with the 4 premium pairs being my top 4 hands (in order, even!) but there is obviously some small-sample-size issues when you see hands like A9s, QJs and A6s being in such exalted company. Interestingly enough, Big Slick (AKs) misses my better-than-a-blind-steal list in both full ring and 6-max. Interesting.

The worst hands are likely not worth looking at - all are suited hands that just due to the combinatorics, I haven't seen enough times for their averages to be representative of their true value.

Well, that's it. Now that it is finally March, I suppose I can leave last year's play where it belongs (in the past) and get on with this year's play.