Risk of Ruin, again

This should be a quick post. I actually had my first Blackjack bonus where I finished in the red - I cleared the $100 Party August reload at PartyCasino and cashed out $11 poorer than I started.

This is not that big a deal, but I only bring it up to clarify one of my points in a previous post. As it turns out, I was down more than $200 at one point clearing this bonus and thus if it was the "standard" bonus I have been talking about in previous posts, I would have gone bust. This actually serves to illustrate why I said before my model underestimates the chance of going bust - my model doesn't take into account that you could have gone bust "on your way" to a non-bust result, as what happened here.

If we use the numbers on wizardofodds.com done from actual simulations, you come up with different numbers:

$1 betting - My RoR: 0.1%, WoO RoR: 0.1% (this is a good check - for very small bets the model should match)
$2 betting - My RoR: 1.0%, WoO RoR: 2%
$3 betting - My RoR: 3.0%, WoO RoR: 5%
$4 betting - My RoR: 5.1%, WoO RoR: 10%
$5 betting - My RoR: 7.2%, WoO RoR: 14%
$10 betting - My RoR: 15.1%, WoO RoR: 30%
$25 betting - My RoR: 25.7%, WoO RoR: 50%

For the larger bets, the RoR is about double my model which (coincidentally) was about that I was thinking it would be. Nice to know my math intuition hasn't gotten that rusty. If I can find the actual formula to produce these numbers, I may update it in my spreadsheet, as I use that spreadsheet to choose how much I'm going to bet for a particular bonus.

That is all - this and a bankroll update on the right. Told you it would be short.......