Early on, I didn't count these milestones, but for the ones that I have: from the time I passed $10K it was another....
- 34 days to $11K, then
- 112 days to $12K, then
- 195 days to $13K
Bankroll update in the sidebar, and back to the tables.....
Saturday, June 06, 2009
$13K - FINALLY !!!!!
Well, it has taken what seems like forever, but I've finally cracked the $13K earned barrier.
Early on, I didn't count these milestones, but for the ones that I have: from the time I passed $10K it was another....
Bankroll update in the sidebar, and back to the tables.....
Early on, I didn't count these milestones, but for the ones that I have: from the time I passed $10K it was another....
Bankroll update in the sidebar, and back to the tables.....
Saturday, April 25, 2009
$1/$2 NL ?!?!?!
Well it was finally time for my occasional trip to go play live poker. poker1eh and I pulled into the casino at about 6:00 PM Friday only to be met with a blank stare when asking about a $3/$6 limit game. We were the first two put on the "interested" list and (as it turns out) that list never got above 5 people the entire time we were there.
So, it was a matter of turning around and going home or deciding to dip our toes in the smallest NL game in the room - $1/$2 NL, $50 min, $200 max buyin. Since I had just taken out $200 CDN to play $3/$6 I figure a decent plan is to buy in for $100 (twice if necessary) and then leave if I get felted twice. poker1eh had pretty much the same idea, so we throw our names as 5th and 6th on the waiting list for $1/$2 NL and then hope that we get thrown on the same table.
About 45 minutes later, there are enough people to start a new table and a dealer arrives to service that need and we're off and running! poker1eh and I choose consecutive seats (me with position on him LDO) and about 5 people post dead blinds on the first hand to get us up and running. I have some K-rag, hit a K on the flop, and take it down with a small bet on the flop. Always nice to win the first hand!
The table was very-very limpy and super passive. A typical hand was 5 limpers, a checked BB, and an $8 bet takes it town on the flop. We are a few orbits in when the only hand that really matters to my whole night occurs:
I am sitting on about $130 and overlimp Kc 9c in MP. I believe we go 6-ways for a single bet.
Flop is nearly the best flop I can imagine: Ac 9d 4c giving me a pair and the nut flush draw.
It is checked to me, I bet $10 into the $12 pot and get insta-raised to $25 by the next guy to act. Folded back to me. I obviously have a monster draw here (I figure I am equity-neutral vs. almost any Ace) and my only decision was to call or to shove right here. I didn't know my exact stack size at the time, but I did know that a shove would be a way-over-pot size bet, and (for whatever reason) though that was inappropriate. So, I just called the $15 after about 20 seconds of deliberation. $62, I have about $100 behind, and the aggressor easily has me covered. I exaggeratedly check dark before the turn is even dealt.
Turn was the beautiful, beautiful 2c. I wait for the guy to act, but it appears he didn't see me check dark, so I reiterate my check. He bets $40, I hesitate (not long enough to Hollywood, but it wasn't instantaneous), and announce "all-in" pushing my chips forward.
Here's where it goes a little sideways for me. He asks for a count and even though my brain is screaming "let the dealer count it idiot !!!!" my hands are out there trying to cut the chips into neat piles and failing miserably. I am shaking, and I don't think it is too subtle at all. At some point after what seems like minutes of fumbling (but was probably only 10 seconds) I actually do motion for the dealer to count. "$104, $74 more to call" announces the dealer after a sickeningly smooth cutting of my piles into neat stacks. I feel like such a dumbass, even now recalling the moment.
The guy starts talking "Man, why'd you have to go and do that? What do you have?" and tanks for what I'd say is 2 minutes at least. Easily the longest decision so far and (as it would turn out) the longest decision of the night. He cuts $74 more out of his stack and just stares at it for a bit, looking back and forth between it and the rest of his stack. He finally pushes it forward with a "call" and flips AQo!!! Wow. I'm thinking the whole time he is on a set or a minimum of two pair to take that long to call me, unless he took my near epileptic-seizure while counting my chips as nervousness from a bluff . I'm not quite sure what he thought AQo was ahead of (except that bluff), but I'm obviously glad he called me drawing dead. $270 pot shipitplz.
Believe it or not, not much else happened after that. Small up-and-down variations in the stack. The table got significantly more aggro as the night went on, and (in particular) I had a large stacked guy sit to my immediate left and although he was playing crap cards, it severely constrained what I could do, especially since he kept hitting with all of them. I bet he had $500 in front of him by the time I left. A real-life demonstration of the power of position I suppose.
poker1eh was having significantly less luck than I. Four times he flopped big draws (including 3 of them being OESD + pair combos) and got it all in on the flop against hands that had no business calling his push, and whiffed every one of them. When he lost his final chips from his $200 I finished out the revolution and went for a drink and snacks with him, cashing out for $210 (+$110 CDN profit).
Overall the night was fun - I had a much better time when the table was limpy-passive, but I got increasingly uncomfortable as it got more aggro and especially once the big stack guy was to my left. Would I do it again? Well, considering it might be my only chance to play live poker, I don't know that I have a choice....
So, it was a matter of turning around and going home or deciding to dip our toes in the smallest NL game in the room - $1/$2 NL, $50 min, $200 max buyin. Since I had just taken out $200 CDN to play $3/$6 I figure a decent plan is to buy in for $100 (twice if necessary) and then leave if I get felted twice. poker1eh had pretty much the same idea, so we throw our names as 5th and 6th on the waiting list for $1/$2 NL and then hope that we get thrown on the same table.
About 45 minutes later, there are enough people to start a new table and a dealer arrives to service that need and we're off and running! poker1eh and I choose consecutive seats (me with position on him LDO) and about 5 people post dead blinds on the first hand to get us up and running. I have some K-rag, hit a K on the flop, and take it down with a small bet on the flop. Always nice to win the first hand!
The table was very-very limpy and super passive. A typical hand was 5 limpers, a checked BB, and an $8 bet takes it town on the flop. We are a few orbits in when the only hand that really matters to my whole night occurs:
I am sitting on about $130 and overlimp Kc 9c in MP. I believe we go 6-ways for a single bet.
Flop is nearly the best flop I can imagine: Ac 9d 4c giving me a pair and the nut flush draw.
It is checked to me, I bet $10 into the $12 pot and get insta-raised to $25 by the next guy to act. Folded back to me. I obviously have a monster draw here (I figure I am equity-neutral vs. almost any Ace) and my only decision was to call or to shove right here. I didn't know my exact stack size at the time, but I did know that a shove would be a way-over-pot size bet, and (for whatever reason) though that was inappropriate. So, I just called the $15 after about 20 seconds of deliberation. $62, I have about $100 behind, and the aggressor easily has me covered. I exaggeratedly check dark before the turn is even dealt.
Turn was the beautiful, beautiful 2c. I wait for the guy to act, but it appears he didn't see me check dark, so I reiterate my check. He bets $40, I hesitate (not long enough to Hollywood, but it wasn't instantaneous), and announce "all-in" pushing my chips forward.
Here's where it goes a little sideways for me. He asks for a count and even though my brain is screaming "let the dealer count it idiot !!!!" my hands are out there trying to cut the chips into neat piles and failing miserably. I am shaking, and I don't think it is too subtle at all. At some point after what seems like minutes of fumbling (but was probably only 10 seconds) I actually do motion for the dealer to count. "$104, $74 more to call" announces the dealer after a sickeningly smooth cutting of my piles into neat stacks. I feel like such a dumbass, even now recalling the moment.
The guy starts talking "Man, why'd you have to go and do that? What do you have?" and tanks for what I'd say is 2 minutes at least. Easily the longest decision so far and (as it would turn out) the longest decision of the night. He cuts $74 more out of his stack and just stares at it for a bit, looking back and forth between it and the rest of his stack. He finally pushes it forward with a "call" and flips AQo!!! Wow. I'm thinking the whole time he is on a set or a minimum of two pair to take that long to call me, unless he took my near epileptic-seizure while counting my chips as nervousness from a bluff . I'm not quite sure what he thought AQo was ahead of (except that bluff), but I'm obviously glad he called me drawing dead. $270 pot shipitplz.
Believe it or not, not much else happened after that. Small up-and-down variations in the stack. The table got significantly more aggro as the night went on, and (in particular) I had a large stacked guy sit to my immediate left and although he was playing crap cards, it severely constrained what I could do, especially since he kept hitting with all of them. I bet he had $500 in front of him by the time I left. A real-life demonstration of the power of position I suppose.
poker1eh was having significantly less luck than I. Four times he flopped big draws (including 3 of them being OESD + pair combos) and got it all in on the flop against hands that had no business calling his push, and whiffed every one of them. When he lost his final chips from his $200 I finished out the revolution and went for a drink and snacks with him, cashing out for $210 (+$110 CDN profit).
Overall the night was fun - I had a much better time when the table was limpy-passive, but I got increasingly uncomfortable as it got more aggro and especially once the big stack guy was to my left. Would I do it again? Well, considering it might be my only chance to play live poker, I don't know that I have a choice....
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Taxes
Well, it being tax day, I thought I'd finally drag out a calculation to see what the tax rate on my poker playing is. I am doing this calculation for the first time in this post, so I don't quite know what the number will be, but it will be quite high.
So, why isn't this calculation trivial? Why can't I just take my Federal marginal tax rate (25%) and my state marginal rate (4.35%) to get 29.35%? Ah, if only it were that simple. The problem is that poker income is counted by "session" whereby all winning sessions are added to your Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), and all your losing sessions are taken as Schedule A deductions, much like mortgage interest and property tax. Gory details in a previous post I made in the topic here. Why does this matter?
So, why isn't this calculation trivial? Why can't I just take my Federal marginal tax rate (25%) and my state marginal rate (4.35%) to get 29.35%? Ah, if only it were that simple. The problem is that poker income is counted by "session" whereby all winning sessions are added to your Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), and all your losing sessions are taken as Schedule A deductions, much like mortgage interest and property tax. Gory details in a previous post I made in the topic here. Why does this matter?
- Certain deductions and tax credits start to "phase out" as you increase your AGI, regardless of what your actual taxable income winds up being.
- Michigan does not count Schedule A deductions in your taxes - they pretty much tax you on your Federal AGI only.
The combination of these two items will raise my marginal poker-tax-rate, which I will calculate as the amount of extra tax I paid due to the fact I played poker divided by the amount of money I made.
The way my year wound up, I made a profit of $4,725.62, broken up as
- $2,035.62 through play at the tables
- $2,690.00 through bonus
But as mentioned, I have to "break up" that $2,035.62 into winning and losing sessions for tax purposes, then add back in the amount of the bonus as a giant winning session. When looked at this way, the numbers are:
- $16,041.34 in winning sessions
- $11,315.72 in losing sessions
Note that the difference between those two numbers is exactly my profit of $4,725.62 as expected.
So, let's start with the easy part. The amount of Federal tax I will pay on this is simply my Federal marginal tax rate times my profit, since I do get to claim my Schedule A deductions. I thus pay $4,725.62 * 25% = $1,181.41 in Federal tax.
Next, the specific credit in my case is a loss of $50 in tax credit for every increase of $1,000 in AGI, or 5%. Therefore, since my AGI increased by over $16K, the amount of tax credit my poker playing cost me is $802.07 ($16,041.34 * 5%). And, no, this is not double counting anything, as this is a (lost) tax credit which is calculated after tax rates have already been applied.
Next, as mentioned Michigan taxes only on AGI, so the amount of extra Michigan tax I pay due to pokering is $16,041.34 * 4.35% = $697.80.
Adding these numbers up, my tax bill is sobering $2,681.28 larger than it would be if I didn't play at all, resulting in a marginal tax rate of 56.7% on my poker winnings. Looked at another way, all the bonus I cleared in 2008 was almost exactly enough to cover my tax bill, leaving me with "just" my profit from the tables. Believe it or not, this number is somewhere in the ballpark of what I thought it would be when I started the calculation (I had thought 50-mid 60%).
It really does give me pause on whether I should even bother to play at all. The way the tax law is set up (and due to the wacky Michigan taxation), it is entirely possible that I could wind up owing more taxes at the end of a year than I made profit.
Three quick examples:
- Breakeven year at tables, profitable overall: $17K in winnings, $17K in losses, $2K in bonus would have me with a $2K profit for the year but stuck with a incremental tax bill of $2,277. Admittedly, I'd probably make more than $2K in bonus if I put in that much action, but it at least shows that it is possible. This is a best case scenario out of the three examples, actually.
- Breakeven year overall: (losses at tables, make it up in bonus): $17K in winnings, $20K in losses, $3K in bonuses leaves me breakeven for the year but stuck with a tax bill of $1,870.
- Losing year overall: $17K in winnings, $22K in losses, $3K in bonuses leaves me in the hole by $2K for the year and stuck with a tax bill of $1,870.
Is it worth it? Having over half your money taken away as a (solidly?) winning player, with the risk of more-than-all your money being taken? Especially for a game that drives me crazy half the time?
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Q1 2009
At the bottom of this graph (about March 6) I made a goal for myself to get back to even for the first quarter of 2009, as if I didn't it would be only my second losing quarter since I started.
Boo-yah.
Monday, March 02, 2009
3 Year Biggest and Most
Don't feel like doing this on a year-by-year basis as I've done it before, so will just do the biggest 3 in each category.
Most BB won, day
11/22/2008: +82.1 BB
4/8/2006: +70.6 BB
10/31/2008: +66.1 BB
Altogether 13 days of 50+ BB. Would never have guessed that two of my best days were in late 2008 - I don't remember going on runs like that. Even more surprising when you realize they are contained within my current 27K hand breakeven stretch.
Most BB lost, day
3/5/2008: -65.0 BB
3/18/2007: -60.0 BB
11/5/2008: -59.1 BB
Altogether 6 days of -50+ BB.
Most BB won, week
12/10/2007 - 12/16/2007: +112.3 BB
6/23/2008 - 6/29/2008: +104.6 BB
5/1/2006 - 5/7/2006: +94.7 BB
Altogether 29 weeks of +50+ BB, although only 4 of these in the last year, and only 1 in the last 7 months.
Most BB lost, week
3/12/2007 - 3/18/2007: -98.0 BB
3/5/2007 - 3/11/2007: -95.6 BB
3/27/2006 - 4/2/2006: -84.0 BB
Altogether 11 weeks of -50+ BB, only 2 of them in the past year. Yeah, March 2007 sucked, and evidently March 2006 was not much better. Doesn't bode well for the rest of March 2009. In a graph:
Most BB won, day
11/22/2008: +82.1 BB
4/8/2006: +70.6 BB
10/31/2008: +66.1 BB
Altogether 13 days of 50+ BB. Would never have guessed that two of my best days were in late 2008 - I don't remember going on runs like that. Even more surprising when you realize they are contained within my current 27K hand breakeven stretch.
Most BB lost, day
3/5/2008: -65.0 BB
3/18/2007: -60.0 BB
11/5/2008: -59.1 BB
Altogether 6 days of -50+ BB.
Most BB won, week
12/10/2007 - 12/16/2007: +112.3 BB
6/23/2008 - 6/29/2008: +104.6 BB
5/1/2006 - 5/7/2006: +94.7 BB
Altogether 29 weeks of +50+ BB, although only 4 of these in the last year, and only 1 in the last 7 months.
Most BB lost, week
3/12/2007 - 3/18/2007: -98.0 BB
3/5/2007 - 3/11/2007: -95.6 BB
3/27/2006 - 4/2/2006: -84.0 BB
Altogether 11 weeks of -50+ BB, only 2 of them in the past year. Yeah, March 2007 sucked, and evidently March 2006 was not much better. Doesn't bode well for the rest of March 2009. In a graph:
I am (frankly) amazed that I've gone on two separate winning streaks of 12+ weeks, while my longest losing streaks are one of 5 weeks (but what a doozy THAT one was), one of 4 weeks, and all others are 3 weeks or less.
Most $$$ won, day
11/22/2008: +$417.67
1/5/2008: +$380.90
10/31/2008: +$363.26
10 days of +$200+ (all contained in 2008).
Most $$$ lost, day
11/5/2008: -$297.00
10/26/2008: -$248.75
1/13/2008: -$241.50
Amazingly every single one of these is within a week of my largest $$ days listed above.
11 days of -$200+, most clustered in a very small space right around -$200.
Most $$$ won, week
6/23/2008 - 6/29/2008: $560.95
3/10/2008 - 3/16/2008: $466.48
10/29/2007 - 11/4/2007: $447.31
13 weeks of $200+
Most $$$ lost, week
5/12/2008 - 5/18/2008: -$414.75
3/5/2007 - 3/11/2007: -$298.00
11/3/2008 - 11/9/2008: -$291.85
6 weeks of -$200+. That May week is a huge loss compared to other losing weeks, although immediately after it I went on a 12-consecutive-week winning streak for just over $2250. In graphical form:
Fun stuff.
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